摘要
目的:模拟人口老龄化背景下卫生健康指标的变化趋势,提出不同的应对策略。方法:构建动态随机一般均衡模型和卫生指标估算程序,采用基于贝叶斯估计的模型比较法及比较静态分析法,估算不同老龄化程度下的卫生健康指标值;通过调整相应的参数,模拟提高医保报销比例和实行老龄人口健康管理的政策效果。结果:在人口老龄化程度不断加深的过程中,社会医疗负担不断增长,卫生筹资公平性和社会福利水平呈先恶化后好转的趋势。政策模拟结果表明,提高医保报销比例会提升整体健康水平和福利水平,但可能增加社会医疗负担和健康不公平;实行老龄人口健康管理会在维护全民健康的同时,避免社会医疗负担和健康公平性的恶化。结论:加快构建面向预防、健康管理的医疗体系,推进“健康老龄化”建设,同时加强对医保基金使用的监管,提高医疗保障政策的针对性和实效性。
Objective To simulate the changing trend of health indicators in the background of population aging and propose different coping strategies.Methods This study constructed the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and health index estimation procedure,and adopted the model comparison method and comparative static analysis method based on Bayesian estimation to estimate the health index value under different aging degrees.This study also simulated the policy effect of increasing the medical insurance reimbursement ratio and implementing the health management of the aging population.Results In the process of increasing population ageing,the social health care burden is growing,and the equity of health financing and social welfare levels tend to deteriorate before improving.The results of policy simulations showed that increasing the reimbursement rate of health insurance would improve the overall health and welfare level,but may increase the social medical burden and health inequity.Implementing health management for the ageing population will avoid the deterioration of social medical burden and health equity while maintaining the health of the whole population.Conclusion It is suggested to accelerate the construction of a health care system oriented towards prevention and health management,promote the construction of healthy ageing,and at the same time strengthen the supervision of the use of health insurance funds to improve the relevance and effectiveness of health care policies.
作者
任晓明
吴群红
REN Xiaoming;WU Qunhong(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Science,Beijing 102401,China)
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“国家医疗保障基金监管手段与创新模式研究”(19AZD013)。
作者简介
任晓明(1982-),男,博士研究生,研究方向:卫生政策与卫生经济学;通讯作者:任晓明,E-mail:2311754700@qq.com。
