摘要
分布式可再生能源发电在配电网中的比例逐年提高,其不确定性给配电网的安全运行带来了挑战,量化研究源–荷不确定性对配电网潮流的影响具有重要意义。计及源–荷的随机–模糊特征,该文建立随机源–荷模糊参数模型,提出考虑源–荷随机–模糊特征的配电网潮流不确定性量化方法,包括不确定性表征和灵敏度分析两个阶段。在不确定性表征阶段,提出基于多项式混沌克里金方法(polynomial-chaosbased Kriging,PCK)的配电网随机–模糊潮流高效计算方法。在灵敏度分析阶段,提出基于隶属函数的全局灵敏度分析(global sensitivity analysis,GSA)方法,用于定量评估随机源–荷模糊参数对配电网潮流的影响,准确辨识关键随机源–荷模糊参数。将所提方法应用于含分布式可再生能源的33节点和123节点配电网系统进行仿真计算,验证了所提方法的有效性。
The proportion of distributed renewable energy generation in distribution network increases year by year,and its uncertainty brings challenges to the safe operation of distribution network.It is important to quantify the impacts of source-load uncertainty on distribution network power flow.Considering the random and fuzzy characteristics of source-load,this paper established a random source-load fuzzy parameter model.Then,an uncertainty quantification method was proposed for distribution network power flow considering the random and fuzzy characteristics of source-load.The proposed method includes two stages:uncertainty representation and sensitivity analysis.In the uncertainty representation stage,a polynomial-chaos-based Kriging(PCK)method was proposed for the efficient calculation of random-fuzzy power flow in distribution network.In the sensitivity analysis stage,the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)method based on membership function was proposed to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of random source-load fuzzy parameters on distribution network power flow and accurately identify the critical parameters.The proposed method was applied in 33-node and 123-node distribution network systems with distributed renewable energy generators.The effectiveness of the proposed methods was verified by simulation results.
作者
方晓涛
严正
王晗
徐潇源
FANG Xiaotao;YAN Zheng;WANG Han;XU Xiaoyuan(Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion of Ministry of Education(Shanghai Jiao Tong University),Minhang District,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第20期7509-7523,共15页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52107116)。
关键词
不确定性量化
源–荷随机–模糊特征
配电网潮流
隶属函数
全局灵敏度分析
uncertainty quantification
random and fuzzy characteristics of source-load
distribution network power flow
membership function
global sensitivity analysis
作者简介
方晓涛(1998),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为电力系统不确定性分析,fangxiaotao98@163.com;严正(1964),男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统优化运行、电力系统稳定分析及智能电网等,yanz@sjtu.edu.cn;通信作者:王晗(1993),男,博士后,研究方向为电力系统不确定性分析、电力系统概率潮流计算等,wanghan9894@sjtu.edu.cn;徐潇源(1989),男,助理教授,研究方向为电力系统不确定性分析、电力系统优化,xuxiaoyuansjtu@gmail.com。
