中西部地区新一线城市商品房价格泡沫测度及其影响因素

Bubble measurement and influencing factors of commercial housing price in new first-tier cities in central and western regions

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摘要房地产的核心问题是价格泡沫大.为测度房价泡沫,将不可观测的商品房基础价值作为状态变量,纳入基于商品房供求关系而建立的状态空间模型,对中西部地区新一线城市商品房价格泡沫进行测度.研究发现:2004年以来,除长沙市外,西安、重庆、成都、郑州及武汉等新一线城市商品房价格泡沫均呈现加剧态势,2004至2018年泡沫程度平均达到20.45%;商品房价格泡沫在城市之间既存在异质性、又有相似性,其中武汉市最为严重,重庆和成都、武汉和郑州呈现出波动趋势相似.对商品房价格影响因素分析发现:市场需求以及开发成本是影响商品房价格波动的核心因素;竣工造价对长期房价波动影响较大,而对短期房价波动影响较小. The core problem of real estate is the price bubble.To measure the housing price bubble,this paper takes the unobservable basic value of commercial housing as the state variable,including into the state space model based on the supply and demand of commercial housing.The analysis of the housing price bubble in new first-tier cities in the central and western regions shows that since 2004,Commercial housing price bubble have been aggravated in new first-tier Cities such as Xi'an,Chongqing,Chengdu,Zhengzhou and Wuhan,except Changsha.From 2004 to 2018,the average degree of bubble reached 20.45%;Commercial housing price bubble exists heterogeneity and similarity in new first-tier cities.The bubble in Wuhan is the most serious,and the fluctuation trends of Chongqing and Chengdu are similar,while that of Wuhan and Zhengzhou are similar.The analysis of the influencing factors of commercial housing price suggests that the market demand and development cost are the core factors affecting the fluctuation of commercial housing price;The completion cost of commercial housing has a greater impact on the long-term house price fluctuation,but less impact on the short-term house price fluctuation.

作者张志强陈凯达蒲甘霖 ZHANG Zhiqiang;CHEN Kaida;PU Ganlin(School of Economics,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China;School of Economics and Management,Wenzhou Institute of Technology,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China)

机构地区西北师范大学经济学院温州理工学院经济与管理学院

出处《内江师范学院学报》 CAS 2022年第10期69-79,共11页 Journal of Neijiang Normal University

基金甘肃省教育厅创新之星项目(2021CXZX-321) 西北师范大学研究生科研资助项目(2020KYZZ001147) 西北师范大学国家级大学生创新创业训练计划专项培育项目(CXCYKT2022174)。

关键词新一线城市商品房价格泡沫状态空间模型 new first-tier cities commercial housing price bubble state space model

分类号 F832.59 [经济管理—金融学]

作者简介张志强(1998-),男,河南新野人,硕士研究生,研究方向:金融风险防范;通信作者:蒲甘霖(1989-),男,浙江温州人,副教授,博士,研究方向:金融风险管理。