摘要
在中国各大流域中,海河流域水文情势受环境变化的影响最为显著,深入研究环境变化对流域洪水演变的影响具有重要的实践意义。选取海河流域中部大清河山区紫荆关水文站以上和阜平水文站以上2个典型子流域,利用两站1960—2018年年最大洪峰对应的洪水过程和降水量资料,运用数理统计等方法分析流域洪水过程、径流系数和产流阈值的变化,采用时变参数模型GAMLSS分析非一致性条件下洪水频率的变化情况。结果表明:2个子流域1960—2018年的洪峰流量序列均呈显著下降趋势,且不同阶段洪量及径流系数的均值也呈现持续下降趋势。2个流域2000—2018年产流阈值的均值分别为14、16 mm,下垫面变化引起的水文非一致性对设计洪水值的影响显著,在未来水文分析计算中应重视环境变化对水文序列的影响。
Among the major river basins in China,Haihe River basin is greatly affected by environmental changes in terms of hydrological situations.Therefore,in-depth studies on the impact of environmental changes on flood evolution in the basin are of practical significance.Two typical sub-basins at the upper reaches of Zijingguan hydrological station and Fuping hydrological station are selected,and the two stations are located in the Daqinghe mountain area of the Haihe River basin.According to the flood process and precipitation data of the annual maximum flood peak of the two stations from 1960 to 2018,the changes in flood process,runoff coefficient,and runoff threshold are analyzed by mathematical statistics and other methods,and a time-varying parameter model GAMLSS is used to analyze the changes in flood frequency under inconsistency conditions.The results show that the flood peak discharge of the two sub-basins decreased significantly from 1960 to 2018,and the average value of flood peak discharge and runoff coefficient in different stages became small gradually.The average values of runoff threshold of the two sub-basins were 14 and 16 mm,respectively,from 2000 to 2018.The hydrological inconsistency caused by the change in underlying surfaces has a significant impact on the design flood value,and follow-up analysis and calculation of hydrology should pay attention to the impact of environmental changes on hydrological series.
作者
王思奇
朱宏鹏
鲁帆
江明
周毓彦
WANG Siqi;ZHU Hongpeng;LU Fan;JIANG Ming;ZHOU Yuyan(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Baoding Water Administration Detachment of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2022年第10期33-40,49,共9页
Pearl River
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51679252)
国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC0406501)。
作者简介
王思奇(1997-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail:dbljsj2019@163.com;通信作者:鲁帆(1981-),男,教授级高级工程师,主要研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail:lufan@iwhr.com。
