摘要
输气站的有序运行依赖于能量流、物质流、信息流、行为流等过程流的交互约束。为了更系统全面地评估输气站排污系统中存在的风险,将其看作一个网络结构研究各种流要素之间的关联关系,提出了一种适用于输气站排污系统风险评估的多层级模糊着色Petri网方法。首先,以火灾、中毒、人身伤害作为结果事件,在过程流视域下对输气站排污系统进行风险辨识与分析,确定推理规则;其次,从能量流、物质流、信息流、行为流的角度对规则进行抽象,构建多层级着色Petri网模型;最后,通过现场获取的置信度经验值进行模糊推理,计算得出中间库所与终止库所的置信度。结果表明,输气站排污系统发生火灾、中毒、人身伤害事故的可能性较低,但行为流因素对输气站排污系统事故风险影响最大,因此在排污过程中应当重点预防人的不安全行为。
The orderly operation of gas transmission stations relies on the interaction constraints of process flows such as energy flow,material flow,information flow,and behavior flow.To evaluate the risks in the sewage system of gas transmission stations more systematically and comprehensively,it is necessary to consider it as a network structure to study the relationships among various process flow elements.A multi-level fuzzy colored Petri nets method was proposed for the risk assessment of the gas transmission station sewage system.First of all,the risk of gas transmission station sewage system and the reasoning rules were identified and analyzed from the perspective of process flow considering fire,poisoning,and personal injury as the result events.Risk factors were determined based on the process flow of the sewage unit and the reasoning rules were determined according to experts’knowledge and experience.Secondly,the rules were abstracted from the perspectives of energy flow,material flow,information flow,and behavior flow.Subsequently,the multi-level colored Petri nets model was built by conducting graphical representation based on construction principles and reasoning rules of the network model.Finally,the fuzzy inference was performed based on the confidence empirical value obtained from the spot and the confidence value of intermediate places and termination places was calculated.The results show that the possibility of fire,poisoning,and personal injury accidents of the gas transmission station sewage system is extremely low but the possibility of poisoning accidents is higher than that of the other two kinds of accidents.Meanwhile,the behavioral flow has the greatest impact on the risk of accidents of gas transmission station sewage system,followed by information flow,material flow,and energy flow.Therefore,the prevention of unsafe human behavior should be emphasized during the operation of the sewage process.
作者
李威君
刘双磊
伊岩
孙艺博
LI Weijun;LIU Shuang-lei;YI Yan;SUN Yi-bo(College of Safety and Environmental Engineering(School of Safety and Emergency Management),Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China;Shandong Province Guoshi Natural Gas Pipeline Limited Company,Jinan 250014,China;Shandong Branch,China,Classification Society Quality Certification Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期1736-1742,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51904169)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019BEE018)。
关键词
安全工程
输气站排污系统
风险评估
多层级模糊着色Petri网
safety engineering
sewage system of gas transmission station
risk assessment
multi-level fuzzy colored Petri net
作者简介
李威君,副教授,博士,从事事故预防与风险评估理论及方法研究,weijunli2013@163.com。
