摘要
大地震后强余震活跃,震后快速判断最大余震震级和强余震发生可能性对提高应急救援效率有重大意义。针对震后应急救援,本文根据救援存活率将震后救援期分为8个时段:震后12 h、震后24 h、震后48 h、震后72 h、震后96 h、震后120 h、震后144 h和震后168 h。对我国大陆地区1966年以来6级及以上地震强余震资料进行分时段统计,分别拟合出8个时段的最大余震震级和主震震级的经验公式;并提出震后强余震发生可能性的经验判断方法,通过本文提出的可能性指数a,依据主震震级,震后可以快速判定强余震发生的可能性。
Strong aftershocks are active after a major earthquake,It is of great significance to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue,According to the survival rate of rescue,the post-earthquake rescue period is divided into 8 periods:12 h,24 h,48 h,72 h,96 h,120 h,144 h and 168 h after the earthquake,Data of strong aftershocks of magnitude 6 or above in China's Mainland since 1966,The empirical formula of the maximum aftershock stage and the main shock magnitude for 8 periods is fitted respectively;The empirical judgment method of the possibility of strong aftershocks after the earthquake is also proposed,Through the likelihood index presented here,a,According to the main shock magnitude,The possibility of strong aftershocks can be quickly determined after the earthquake.
作者
管丽倩
戴君武
杨永强
许德峰
GUAN Liqian;DAI Junwu;YANG Yongqiang;XU Defeng(Institute of Engineering Mechanics of China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration of China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China)
出处
《世界地震工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期212-220,共9页
World Earthquake Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1504400)。
关键词
强余震
应急救援
最大余震震级
强余震发生可能性
strong aftershocks
emergency rescue
maximum aftershock magnitude
possibility of strong aftershocks
作者简介
管丽倩(1997-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事结构抗震研究.E-mail:hitguanliqian@163.com;通讯作者:戴君武(1967-),男,研究员,博导,主要从事结构抗震减震研究.E-mail:jwdai@iem.cn。
