摘要
大新镇位于资水中游河谷地区,境内地形陡峭,地质灾害沿河谷两岸多发,开展地质灾害易发性评价对大新镇地质灾害预测预报、防灾减灾具有重要意义。以大新镇1∶5万地质灾害详细调查数据为基础,选取坡高、坡向、坡度、工程岩组、构造、河流、道路7个评价因子,建立研究区地质灾害易发性评价指标体系;利用基于层次分析(AHP)模型和信息量(IV)模型改进后的加权信息量(WIV)模型对研究区开展地质灾害易发性评价,并以信息量变化曲线的突变点为分区阈值界限将研究区划分为低、中、较高、极高易发区;通过ROC曲线对评价结果进行检验,结果表明WIV模型得到的AUC值为0.745,IV模型得到的AUC值为0.712,AHP模型得到的AUC值为0.663,WIV模型相比IV模型和AHP模型评价精度分别提高了5%和12.3%,说明改进后的WIV模型评价精度较高,适应于小区域城镇尺度地质灾害易发性评价,评价结果对该区域地质灾害风险防治与管控具有指导意义。
Daxin Town is located in the valley of the middle reaches of Zishui River,with steep terrain and frequent geological disasters along both sides of the valley.It is of great significance to carry out geological disaster susceptibility evaluation for geological disaster prediction and disaster prevention and mitigation in Daxin Town.Based on the detailed survey data of 1∶50000 geological disasters in Daxin Town,this paper selects seven factors including slope height,slope,slope aspect,engineering rock group,structure,river and road to establish the evaluation index system of geological disaster susceptibility.The Weighted Information Value(WIV)model,which is improved based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Information Value(IV)model,is used to evaluate the vulnerability of the study area.The study area is divided into low,medium,high and very high risk areas with the abrupt change of information content curve as the partition threshold.ROC curve is used to check the evaluation results.The AUC value of WIV model is 0.745,that of single IV model is 0.712,and that of AHP model is 0.663,The accuracy of WIV model is 5%and 12.3%higher than that of IV model and AHP model,respectively,indicating that the improved WIV model has higher evaluation accuracy and is suitable for the evaluation of the vulnerability of geological disasters at the urban scale in small regions.The evaluation results have guiding significance for the prevention and control of geological disasters risk in this region.
作者
焦伟之
张明
谢鑫鹏
李成文
刘涛
庞海松
JIAO Weizhi;ZHANG Ming;XIE Xinpeng;LI Chengwen;LIU Tao;PANG Haisong(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期119-128,共10页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41772334)。
作者简介
焦伟之(1996-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地质灾害风险评价。E-mail:18392592186@163.com;通讯作者:张明(1981-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事地质灾害风险评价方面的研究。E-mail:zhangming8157@126.com。
