摘要
全球变暖下我国气候响应的研究对进一步预估我国未来气候变化相关风险及制定适应和减缓政策具有重要意义。利用第六次耦合模式比较计划中25个全球气候模式的模拟结果,评估比较了各种可靠性集合加权方案对中国区域气候的模拟性能,基于表现最好的可靠性集合平均方案预估了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下中国极端气候指数在全球增暖1.5和2.0℃下的未来变化。结果表明,改进的可靠性集合方案模拟中国气候指数表现最好,与观测的偏差最小。未来中国区域温度明显增加,极端温度的增幅强于平均温度,极端降水整体也增加,且SSP5-8.5情景下增幅略强于SSP2-4.5情景。SSP5-8.5情景下,中国区域平均温度、最高温和最低温在全球增暖1.5(2.0℃)下较1995—2014年分别增加了1.11、1.18和1.31℃(1.88、1.98和2.14℃),总降水和强降水分别增加了5.6%和14.4%(10.5%和25.7%)。中国北方和青藏高原部分区域为增温的大值区,中国西部为降水增加的大值区。额外0.5℃增暖对中国地区产生显著影响,几乎整个中国地区温度指数的增幅都将超过全球平均。极端降水也将进一步增加,SSP5-8.5情景下中国区域平均总降水额外增加4.9%,强降水增加11.2%。从概率角度来看,2.0℃变暖下,除南方部分地区外,中国其他区域温度指数增加大于1.5℃的概率大于50%。北方地区平均降水增幅大于5%阈值的可能性大于50%,大部分地区强降水增幅大于15%阈值的概率大于50%。尽管改进的可靠性集合方案一定程度上减少了预估不确定性,未来仍需要发展优化集合方案及降尺度技术,以提供更准确的未来预估。
Climate response to global warming in China is significant for predicting future climate change risks and formulating adaptation and mitigation policies.This study examined the projections of climate extremes in China under 1.5 and 2℃global warming based on simulations of 25 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.Different reliability ensemble averaging methods were employed to evaluate performance.The results indicated that the upgraded reliability ensemble averaging method showed the best performance in simulating climate indices in China,with the smallest biases compared with observations.There were increases in all temperature and precipitation indices.The increase in the magnitude of the indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was slightly greater than that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The annual mean temperature,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature,when averaged over the whole of China under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,increased by 1.11,1.18,and 1.31℃(1.88,1.98,and 2.14℃),respectively,relative to 1995-2014,for 1.5℃(2℃)above-preindustrial global warming levels.Increases in Prcptot and R95p were 5.6%and 14.4%(10.5%and 25.7%,respectively).The most remarkable warming occurred in northern China and parts of the Tibetan Plateau.Prcptot and R95p levels increased significantly in most of Western China.Under an additional 0.5℃of global warming,all temperature indices are expected to increase by more than 0.5°C across China.Prcptot will increase by an additional 4.9%,and R95p will increase by 11.2%when averaged over China under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Under 2℃global warming,the probability of all temperature indices increasing by 1.5℃in China is greater than 50%,except for a few parts of South China.The probability of a Prcptot(R95p)increase of 5%(15%)threshold greater than 50%is found in North China(almost the whole of China).Although the upgraded scheme has reduced the uncertainty of projections to some extent,the development of integration methods and downscaling techniques is required to provide more accurate future projections.
作者
朱欢欢
姜胜
江志红
ZHU Huanhuan;JIANG Sheng;JIANG Zhihong(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Wuxi University,Wuxi Jiangsu 214105,China)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期612-626,共15页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“全球增暖1.5℃下东亚气候系统的响应及其情景预估”(编号:2017YFA0603804)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“多种集合方案预估中国极端气候的对比研究”(编号:KYCX22_1135)资助.
作者简介
朱欢欢(1996-),男,江苏南通人,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化研究.E-mail:zhu_hh@nuist.edu.cn;通信作者:江志红(1963-),女,江苏无锡人,教授,主要从事气候变化研究.E-mail:zhjiang@nuist.edu.cn。
