摘要
基于19902016年登陆中国沿海区域的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)和灾害数据,采用线性趋势分析、改进标准化的熵值等方法,分析了影响中国沿海TC的灾害时空特征和灾害强度特征,构建了TC综合灾情指数模型,评估了TC造成的经济损失。结果表明:影响我国的热带气旋总量无明显年际变化,但低强度热带气旋(包括热带低压、热带风暴和强热带风暴)逐年减少,高强度热带气旋(包括台风、强台风和超强台风)显著增多,从而影响到热带气旋致灾的面积范围和强度大小的变化;19901997年热带气旋的综合灾情损失指数明显大于19982016年的综合灾情损失指数,并且前者的年际波动较大,后者指数显著减小且趋于平缓变化,防灾抗灾能力增强且趋于稳定;经过对所选取的3项损失指标的经济核算得出,倒塌房屋的经济价值和受灾农作物的经济价值随年代际为减小趋势,而直接经济损失的年代际增加趋势较为明显。
Based on the tropical cyclones(TCs)that landed in coastal areas of China from 1990 to 2016 and associated disaster data,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics and intensity of disasters caused by TCs that impact the coastal regions of China by using the linear trend analysis and the improved standardized entropy methods.Besides,this article also constructs a TC comprehensive disaster index model,and evaluates the economic losses from TCs.The results show there is no significant interannual variation in the total amount of tropical cyclones affecting China.However,the low-intensity tropical cyclones(including tropical depression,tropical storms and severe tropical storms)are decreasing year by year,and the high-intensity tropical cyclones(including typhoons,strong typhoons and super typhoons)have increased noticeably,thus causing the changes in the extent and intensity of tropical cyclone disasters.The comprehensive disaster loss index of tropical cyclones from 1990 to 1997 is significantly larger than that of 1998—2016,and the inter-annual fluctuation of the former is larger while the latter index is significantly reduced and tends to change gently.This shows that the ability of disaster prevention and resilience is enhanced,tending to be stable.The economic calculation of the selected three loss indicators shows that the economic value of the collapsed houses and the economic value of the affected crops have been decreasing in decadal scale,but the inter-decadal increase of direct economic losses show more obvious trends.
作者
丑洁明
董文杰
徐洪
班靖晗
Chou Jieming;Dong Wenjie;Xu Hong;Ban Jinghan(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Guangdong Laboratory of Southern Ocean Science and Engineering(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences of Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;PICC Health Insurance Company Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China)
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2022年第3期1-10,共10页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42075167)。
关键词
热带气旋
时空分布
经济损失评估
综合灾情指数
tropical cyclone
spatial and temporal distribution
assessment of economic losses
composite disaster index
作者简介
丑洁明(1965),女,湖南长沙人,教授(博导),博士,从事全球变化和气候变化经济学研究.E-mail:choujm@bnu.edu.cn。
