摘要
为了研究基于数值模式的河南输电线路舞动预测的可预报性,以数值预报(numerical weather prediction,NWP)数据和常规舞动气象风险预测模型为基础,通过对河南121个国家气象站的舞动高影响气象要素预报能力的评估,揭示了借助数值预报开展舞动预测的可能性,同时针对河南容易发生输电线路舞动区域进行检验评估。结果表明:河南东部平原地区输电线路舞动具有较好的可预报性,而西部山地丘陵地区舞动可预报性相对较低,4个舞动高发区可预报由高到低分别是:东部平原地区、南部山区、西北部山区、西南部盆地。河南地区温度、风速和湿度预报均表现为东部平原地区偏差小、西部山区偏差大的特点。输电线舞动的气象高影响区间的可预报性从大到小依次是风速、温度、湿度,其命中率分别为73.4%、78.4%和67.1%,温度和风速在河南东部的可预报性明显高于河南西部,而湿度在河南南部可预报性高而北部可预报性低。温度、风速和湿度的可预报性区域分布有差异,要提高输电线路舞动预测水平,需要在不同区域针对不同要素进行预报订正和调整。
In order to study the predictability of line galloping in Henan Province,the predictability of meteorological indices was evaluated by using 121 national meteorological stations observation data and(numerical weather prediction,NWP)data besides the ordinary line galloping prediction model of meteorological risk.The basic meteorological variables were examined by using ordinary statistic methods such as error,absolute error,root mean square error and predictabilities of line galloping in four line galloping prone regions.It revealed the possibility of line galloping prediction by using NWP.The results show that the predictability of line galloping in the plain areas in the east of Henan Province is high,while it is lower in the mountain areas in the west of Henan Province,the predictabilities of the four galloping prone regions are from high to low are region No.1(plain area in the east of Henan Province),region No.3(mountain area in the south of Henan Province),region No.4(mountain area in the northwest of Henan Province)and region No.1(basin area in the southwest of Henan Province).The biases of temperature and wind speed are both small in the plain areas and large in the mountain areas.The predictability of line galloping of meteorological indices from high to low is wind speed,temperature and relative humidity,which the accuracy rates are 73.4%,78.4%,67.1%respectively,and the predictability of wind speed and temperature is high in the east and low in the west and the predictability of relative humidity is high in the south and low in the north.In order to improve the level of prediction,it is necessary to correct the different forecast variables in different region for the predictabilities of temperature,wind speed and relative humidity are not totally the same in different areas.
作者
梁允
陈浩
何晓凤
王洁
肖擎曜
武正天
LIANG Yun;CHEN Hao;HE Xiao-feng;WANG Jie;XIAO Qing-yao;WU Zheng-tian(HNEPC Electric Power Research Institute, Zhengzhou 450052, China;Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Co. ,Ltd, Beijing 100081, China;Beijing JiuTian Meteorology Science & Technology Co. ,Ltd, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2022年第12期4739-4745,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507804)。
关键词
输电线路
舞动
数值预报(NWP)
气象风险
可预报性
transmission line
galloping
numerical weather prediction(NWP)
meteorological risk
predictability
作者简介
第一作者:梁允(1981—),男,汉族,河南郸城人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向:电力气象预测预警技术、电网防灾减灾技术研究及应用,E-mail:123875689@qq.com;通信作者:陈浩(1984—),女,汉族,云南省曲靖人,博士研究生,高级工程师,研究方向:数值模式的解释应用、专业气象预测服务,E-mail:chenhao1016512@126.com。
