摘要
为了研究城市道路交通事故特征与事故严重程度的影响因素,筛选国家车辆事故深度调查体系数据库的交通事故案例数据,得到2726例城市道路交通事故,统计其发生时间分布、地点分布及后果特性,并利用二元Lasso-Logistic回归分析模型对从环境要素、时段气象要素、参与者要素3个方面选取的10个自变量进行了分析。结果表明:城市道路交通事故在9—12月、星期一至星期三、07:00—07:59时段和20:00—20:59时段事故数量大;事故多发生于普通路段;车-车事故数量最多;交通参与者为行人、骑车人的更易受到致命伤害;对向车道隔离方式、道路线形、交通信号灯、除驾驶员外的其他交通参与者等因素对事故严重程度影响显著。
To prevent road traffic accidents and reduce the consequences of road traffic accidents,this paper studied the characteristics of urban road traffic accidents and the influencing factors of the severity of the accident.The research data in this paper comes from the National Automobile Accident In-depth Investigation System(NAIS),with a total of 2726 real road traffic accidents.Based on the statistical analysis method,the characteristics of time distribution,location distribution,and consequence distribution of urban road traffic accidents were obtained.With the severity of the accident as a dependent variable,10 variables such as obstacles,traffic participants,and the form of lane isolation as independent variables,it studied the factors that affect the severity of the accident by binary Lasso-Logistic regression.The principle of factor selection in this paper was that there are other factors except for the influencing factors of the driver.The improved binary Logistic regression model was that the lasso penalty function was added to the traditional model.That can make the coefficient value of some variables equal to zero and eliminate it,and only select the variables that are relatively important to the explanatory variables into the model.The results show that:(1)Urban road traffic accidents often occur from September to December,Monday to Wednesday,07:00-07:59 and 20:00-20:59;(2)Most of the accidents occur in ordinary road sections;(3)Traffic participants who are pedestrians and cyclists are more vulnerable to fatal injuries;(5)The four factors of opposite lane isolation mode,road alignment,traffic lights and other traffic participants except the driver have a significant impact on the severity of the accident.The research data in this paper comes from cities in multiple different regions,which can reflect the characteristics of road traffic accidents in Chinese cities to a certain extent.
作者
张道文
母尧尧
王朝健
刘奇
孙庆
ZHANG Dao-wen;MU Yao-yao;WANG Chao-jian;LIU Qi;SUN Qing(School of Automobile and Transportation,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China;Vehicle Measurement Control and Safety Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610039,China;School of Automotive Engineering,Chengdu Technician College,Chengdu 610039,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期599-605,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
四川省省重点实验室开放课题(QCCK2021-011)
上海汽车工业科技发展基金项目(1828)
成都市科技惠民项目(2015-HM01-00369-SF)
西华大学研究生创新基金项目(yejj2020127)。
作者简介
张道文,教授,从事道路交通安全、汽车安全与运用工程研究,zhangdaowen@nail.xhu.edu.cn。
