摘要
为探究未来土地利用变化空间格局演变特征,在模型精度验证的基础上,采用FLUS模型、马尔可夫链(Markov chain)、空间叠加分析、核密度分析等方法,设置了自然发展、政策约束两种情景,模拟了2025年祥云县土地利用变化,并分析了不同地类扩张的空间格局特征。结果表明:自然发展情景下,建设用地主要在道路沿线及建成区周围呈填充式及边缘式扩张,且集中分布在坝区,山区分布较少,新增耕地分散在山区离河流较近区域,新增林地主要分布在研究区北部、东部山区,新增其他土地分布在研究区南部山区已有其他土地周围,草地、水域的扩张数量较小,园地无扩张现象。政策约束情景下,不同地类扩张区域的核密度高值区、聚集度在空间上存在分异,建设用地向基本农田蔓延的趋势得到遏制,总体呈集约式增长模式,其他地类的扩张特征与自然发展发展情景基本一致,生态红线保护区内土地利用扩张得到控制。该研究可为未来祥云县国土空间格局优化及土地集约节约利用提供参考。
In order to explore the evolution characteristics of the spatial pattern of land use change in the future.Based on the accuracy verification of the model,set two scenarios of natural development and policy constraint,the FLUS model,Markov Chain,spatial superposition analysis and kernel density analysis were adopted to simulate the land use change in Xiangyun County in 2025,and analyzed the spatial pattern characteristics of land use expansion of each type.The results show that under the natural development scenario,the construction land mainly expands along the road and around the built-up area in a filling and marginal manner,and is concentrated in the ba area,but less in the mountainous area.The newly increased cultivated land is scattered in the mountainous area close to the river,the newly increased woodland is mainly distributed in the eastern mountainous area in the north of the study area,and the newly increased other land is distributed around other land in the mountainous area in the south of the study area.The expansion amounts of grassland and water area are small,and the garden has not expanded.Under the policy constraint scenario,the high value area of kernel density and the aggregation degree of different land use expansion areas are spatially different.the spreading trend of construction land to prime farmland was restrained,and the overall pattern of intensive growth is presented,the expansion characteristicsof other land use typesare basically consistent with the natural development scenario,and the expansion of land use in the ecological red line protection area is controlled.This study can provide reference for the optimization of territorial spatial pattern of Xiangyun County in the future.
作者
刘金福
林伊琳
赵俊三
Liu Jinfu;Lin Yilin;Zhao Junsan(Faculty of Land Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Key Laboratory of Geospatial Information Integration and Innovation for Smart Mine,Kunming 650093,China)
出处
《城市勘测》
2022年第2期16-21,共6页
Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41761081)
昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金项目(KKZ3202021055)。
作者简介
刘金福(1994—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地理信息技术与开发应用、土地演化模拟研究,E-mail:1103885759@qq.com;通讯作者:林伊琳(1991-),女,讲师,主要从事国土空间规划与演化模拟研究,E-mail:601960754@qq.com。
