摘要
继中蒙两国达成全面战略伙伴关系后,中蒙跨境电商呈现出发展势头好、增长快、潜力大等特点。在分析影响跨境电商与国际物流发展关键因素基础上,应用系统动力学方法构建仿真模型,对中蒙跨境电商与国际物流协同发展趋势进行预测,并通过改变企业自身、政府扶持、技术水平等影响因素,分析各因素对二者协同发展的动态影响。仿真结果显示,中蒙跨境电商与国际物流发展规模将不断扩大;通过调整企业自身因素、政府扶持因素、技术水平因素得到的模型仿真结果表明,政府以及企业通过加强跨境电商与国际物流基础设施建设、加强人才培养、提高信息技术水平等,可以在一定程度上提升跨境电商发展与国际物流运输周转能力,从而推动跨境电商与国际物流的协同发展。
Sino-Mongolian cross-border e-commerce features good development momentum,rapid growth,and great potential after the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Mongolia.After analyzing the key factors affecting the development of cross-border e-commerce and international logistics,this paper applied the system dynamics method to build a simulation model which was used to predict the collaborative development trend of Sino-Mongolian cross-border e-commerce and international logistics.By varying the influencing factors such as enterprise factors,government support,and technical level,the paper analyzed the dynamic influence of each factor on the collaborative development of Sino-Mongolian cross-border e-commerce and international logistics.The simulation results show the development scale of the two will be expanded continuously.The model simulation with the variation of influencing factors indicates that the government and enterprises can promote the development of cross-border e-commerce and the transportation turnover capacity of international logistics by improving relevant infrastructure construction,personnel cultivation,and information technology.As a result,the collaborative development of cross-border e-commerce and international logistics can be boosted.
作者
计明军
田爽
施运发
温都苏
Ariunbayar Samdantsoodol
JI Mingjun;TIAN Shuang;SHI Yunfa;WEN Dusu;Ariunbayar Samdantsoodol(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;School of Transportation and Mechanical Engineering,Mongolian University of Science and Technology,Ulaanbaatar 13343,Mongolia)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2022年第2期16-24,共9页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71971035,71572022)。
关键词
跨境电商
国际物流
协同发展
系统动力学
仿真演化
Cross-border E-commerce
International Logistics
Collaborative Development
System Dynamics
Simulation Evolution
