摘要
目的分析1975—2020年石河子垦区法定传染病流行趋势、流行特征和流行规律,为政府相关部门制定传染病防治策略提供参考依据。方法使用分割平均法,对石河子垦区1975—2020年法定传染病流行趋势、流行特征和流行规律进行分析和预测。结果1975—2020年石河子垦区共报告法定传染病28种,累计报告传染病病例280036例,平均报告发病率为1028.34/10万,呈明显下降趋势。2004年以后的传染病总发病率呈不规则波浪状,但经分割平均法处理后呈明显下降。2015年以前肠道传染病发病率最高,2015年以后则呈逐年降低趋势,呼吸道传染病、虫媒及自然疫源性疾病、性传播疾病发病率不断上升;2005—2014年乙肝发病率位居第一位,其他感染性腹泻发病率位居第二位,肺结核发病率位居第三位;2015—2020年其他感染性腹泻发病率位居第一位,乙肝次之。结论1975—2020年石河子垦区法定传染病总发病率明显下降,但新旧传染病防控形势依然严峻。采用分割平均法预测传染病发病趋势,可以为政府相关部门制定科学的防控决策提供依据。
Objective To analyze the epidemic trend,characteristics and rules of notifiable infectious diseases in Shihezi Reclamation Area from 1975 to 2020,and to provide references for the government to formulate strategies of infectious diseases.Methods The notifiable diseases in Shihezi Reclamation Area from 1975 to 2020 were analyzed and predicted by means of split average method.Results A total of 28 kinds of statutory infectious diseases were reported in Shihezi Reclamation Area from 1975 to 2020,and 280036 cases with infectious diseases were reported in total.The average reported incidence was 1028.34/100000,showing an obvious decreasing trend.After 2004,the total incidence of infectious diseases showed an irregular wavy pattern,but decreased significantly after the segmentation averaging method.The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases,insect-borne and natural focus diseases and sexually transmitted diseases kept increasing.From 2005 to 2014,hepatitis B ranked first,other infectious diarrhea ranked second,tuberculosis ranked third.From 2015 to 2020,infectious diarrhea ranked first,followed by hepatitis B.Conclusion The total incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Shihezi Reclamation Area decreased significantly from 1975 to 2020,but the prevention and control situation of new and old infectious diseases is still serious.The split average method can be used to predict the incidence trend of infectious diseases and provide scientific basis for government departments to make scientific prevention and control decisions.
作者
师茂林
贾怀妙
孙强
SHI Mao-lin;JIA Huai-miao;SUN Qiang(Shihezi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,8th Division,Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China)
出处
《中国公共卫生管理》
2022年第1期84-87,共4页
Chinese Journal of Public Health Management
基金
新疆石河子市科技计划项目(2017HZ12)。
关键词
传染病
发病率
发病趋势
分割平均法
石河子垦区
infectious disease
incidence
incidence trend
split average method
Shihezi Reclamation Area
作者简介
师茂林(1962-),男,大学专科,主任医师,研究方向:传染病防控、卫生应急处置;通信作者:贾怀妙,E-mail:1169761019@qq.com。
