摘要
对明清江淮西部地区的旱涝史料进行梳理,对逐年州县旱涝灾害资料等级进行量化处理,并通过计算旱涝平均等级值和10年滑动平均值,重建1450—1911年该区域的干湿变化时间序列。结果发现,该区1450—1911年间共出现6个干湿阶段:1450—1490年,以轻度干旱为主;1491—1545年,旱涝灾害频发,干湿波动较为明显;1546—1625年,旱涝灾害少发,干湿比较平稳;1626—1710年,以中度干旱为主,极端干旱事件发生频率显著增加;1711—1860年,气候湿润;1861—1911年,干湿波动偏湿润。不同的干湿阶段对江淮西部的湖泊也造成了一定的影响,干旱时期,湖盆积水减少,湖周萎缩;湿润时期,降雨增加,湖泊的蓄水量增加。
In this paper,the historical data about drought and flood in the western part of the Jianghuai(江淮)region in Ming and Qing dynasties are sorted out,and quantified hierarchically by year and county.Then,by calculating the average grade value of drought and flood and the 10-year moving average value,the time series of dry-wet change in this area from 1450 to 1911 are reconstructed.The results show that there were six dry-wet phases in this area.From 1450 to 1490,the drought was mainly mild.From 1491 to 1545,drought and flood disasters occurred frequently,and the fluctuation of dry and wet climate was obvious.From 1546 to 1625,there were few droughts and floods,and the dry and wet conditions were relatively stable.From 1626 to 1710,moderate drought events were dominant,and the frequency of extreme drought events increased significantly.From 1711 to 1860,wetness dominated.From 1861 to 1911,dry-wet trend fluctuated and tended to be wet.Lakes in this region were also affected in dry and wet stages.
作者
刘玉青
陈业新
Liu Yuqing;Chen Yexin(School of History and Culture of Science,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Department of History,School of Humanities,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《历史地理研究》
CSSCI
2021年第4期18-30,153,154,共15页
The Chinese Historical Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“历史地理视野下的芍陂水资源环境变迁与区域社会研究”(18BZS164)。
关键词
历史气候
干湿变化
明清时期
江淮
historical climate
dry and wet change
Ming and Qing dynasties
Jianghuai region
作者简介
刘玉青,女,1990年生,广东中山人,上海交通大学科学史与科学文化研究院博士研究生;陈业新,男,1967年生,安徽霍邱人,博士,上海交通大学人文学院历史系教授,博士生导师,主要从事灾害史、历史地理研究。
