摘要
20世纪90年代钱学森提出治黄必须从复杂巨系统的角度考虑才能解决。应用系统科学的理论和方法,将治黄系统工程作为黄河流域复杂巨系统的组成部分,考察其形成、演化的过程和规律,有助于应对治黄面临的挑战。近3000 a治黄史显示,秦汉时期治黄系统工程和黄河流域复杂巨系统同步形成、共同演化,治黄系统工程拥有超越狭义系统工程的四层级结构,是一个充满韧性的复杂系统工程。应用系统动力学方法,分析清代气候变化、水、沙、粮食、人口、生态、治黄和治国之间的因果反馈关系,揭示晚清河患严重的深层原因。对比中外当代治河史,发现发达国家治河系统工程演化由科技创新自下而上驱动,治黄系统工程演化由治国理政方针创新自上而下驱动。黄河流域是一个资源约束加大、加速演化、不确定性加大、机制不清的复杂巨系统。未来治黄系统工程需要协同黄河流域中所有6个层级的子系统,大力创新治河管理技术,实施跨领域的循证决策、适应性规划与管理,研发可持续工程和智能工程。
Investigating the process and pattern in the evolution of the Yellow River management from a systems perspective,can help to meet the challenges facing the river management.A historical investigation shows during the Qin and Han Dynasties,systems engineering for the Yellow River Basin formed and adopted a four-tier hierarchy,and hence is very resilient.The feedback analysis within and beyond the Yellow River Basin complex giant system,reveals the underlying political economic cause of serious flood disasters during the Qing Dynasty.The comparative study shows the evolution of river managements in developed countries was driven by technological innovations from the bottom up,while that of the Yellow River management was driven by innovations in governance principles from top to bottom.Future systems engineering for the Yellow River basin should establish a six-tier hierarchy,and implement cross-disciplinary evidence-based decision making,adaptive management,and sustainable and intelligent engineering.
作者
陈蕴真
江恩慧
李军华
CHEN Yunzhen;JIANG Enhui;LI Junhua(Key Laboratory of Yellow River Sediment Research of MWR,Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第2期58-64,70,共8页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407403)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51539004)。
关键词
治河史
复杂巨系统
系统工程
系统科学
黄河流域
history of river management
complex giant system
systems engineering
systems science
Yellow River Basin
作者简介
陈蕴真(1974-),女,福建仙游人,博士,研究方向为河流地貌学和自然地理学;通信作者:江恩慧(1963-),女,河南新安人,正高级工程师,博士,研究方向为河流泥沙E⁃mail:jiangenhui@hky.yrcc.gov.cn。
