摘要
基于鄱阳湖流域1957—2019年14个气象站点的逐日降水数据,采用降水集中度指数CI(Precipitation Concentration Index)表征鄱阳湖流域日尺度下降水的集中程度。在分析出该流域多年平均降水集中度(A_(CI))的空间分布特征的基础上,进一步采用Mann-Kendall和Sen′s方法检测出CI的趋势,利用Pettitt方法检验出CI突变的年份。结果表明:①鄱阳湖流域多年平均降水集中度(A_(CI))由南至北上升,反映出流域北部降水更为集中,其降水极值的发生概率相对更高;②东部地区大部分站点的CI呈显著上升的趋势,反映出东部地区的降水程度愈发集中;③东北部景德镇站、南城站,降水集中指数CI分别于2006、2009年发生显著突变。并且,CI突变后的均值较突变前有所增加,表明近些年景德镇站、南城站日尺度下降水在年内显著集中。
Considering the daily precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1957 to 2019,this paper used the precipitation concentration index(CI)to characterize the concentration degree of daily precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin.After the analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of the annual average precipitation concentration(A_(CI))in this basin,the trend of CI was further detected by the Mann-Kendall and Sen′s method,and the change-point year of CI was also tested by the Pettitt method.The following conclusions can be drawn from the results:①The A_(CI)of the Poyang Lake Basin increases from south to north,indicating that precipitation in the north of this basin is more concentrated and the probability of extreme precipitation events is also higher in the north;②There is a significant upward trend for the CI at most stations in the east,which means that the precipitation concentration there is increasing;③A change-point year was observed for the CI at the Jingdezhen Station(in the year of 2006)and the Nancheng Station(in the year of 2009).The average CI after the change-point year is higher than that before the change-point year at both stations,which indicates that in recent years,the daily precipitation at the Jingdezhen Station and the Nancheng Station is highly concentrated in a year.
作者
凌铭
肖丽英
徐明
彭道松
胡克龙
张越
严如玉
计勇
王寅
LING Ming;XIAO Liying;XU Ming;PENG Daosong;HU Kelong;ZHANG Yue;YAN Ruyu;JI Yong;WANG Yin(School of Hydraulic&Ecological Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2022年第1期97-103,共7页
Pearl River
基金
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ180924)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52109090)
江西省青年科学基金资助项目(20202BABL214050)
江西省研究生创新计划项目资助(YC2020-S631、YC2021-S812、YC2021-S807、YC2021-S806)
南昌工程学院研究生创新计划项目(YJSCX202001、YJSCX202002)。
关键词
降水集中度
日尺度
趋势
突变
鄱阳湖流域
precipitation concentration
daily
trend
change-point
Poyang Lake Basin
作者简介
凌铭(1998-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源与生态水利等工作。E-mail:760636930@qq.com;通信作者:肖丽英(1979-),女,博士,副教授,主要从事水文水资源与生态水利等工作。E-mail:liying-xiao@163.com。
