摘要
营配调一体化实现了营销、生产、调度等多层次工作的有效集中,但营配调一体化也将使得供电系统面临的综合风险随之增加。为提升系统的综合风险预警能力,提出一种考虑营配调一体化的综合风险评估模型。首先根据营配调一体化系统的特点构建了供电风险评价指标体系,并提出一种以AHP和DEA为辅助模型的指标赋权方法,以降低传统物元可拓模型赋权过程中由于主观因素造成的误差;然后通过构造供电综合风险物元、划定供电风险评级,建立营配调一体化的综合风险评估模型。最后以某地区为例分析了其供电风险情况和影响因素,验证该模型在营配调风险评估方面的科学实用性。
The integration of operation and distribution has realized the effective concentration of multi-level work,such as the marketing,production and dispatching.However,the risk level of the power supply system also increases.Under the background,a new risk evaluation model of operation and deployment is proposed in order to enhance the risk early warning capability of the system.Firstly,a power supply risk evaluation index system is constructed based on the characteristics of the integrated system.Secondly,an index weighting method based on AHP and DEA is proposed to reduce the error caused by subjective factors in the weighting process of traditional matter-element extension model.Then,a comprehensive risk assessment model with integrated operation and distribution is established by constructing the comprehensive risk element for power supply and demarcating a power supply risk rating.Finally,a typical area is taken as an example to analyze its risk level and influencing factors,and the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified.
作者
李聪利
刘日亮
杜建
霍现旭
张磐
LI Congli;LIU Riliang;DU Jian;HUO Xianxu;ZHANG Pan(State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300010,China;State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100031,China;State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute,Shanghai 201203,China)
出处
《电力科学与技术学报》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第5期144-152,共9页
Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology
基金
国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(SGTJDK00DWJS1900100)。
关键词
营配调一体化
综合风险
物元可拓模型
评估
transmission network
investment efficiency
the matter element extension model
graph theory
作者简介
通信作者:李聪利(1974-),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事配电网运维管理研究,E-mail:zq_198302@163.com。
