摘要
现阶段我国金融体系面临的资金总体回报率下降和杠杆率攀升等问题,主要不是总量问题,而是结构问题。本文在"融资主体结构-融资用途结构-融资渠道结构"三位一体框架下,系统性地梳理分析2008年全球金融危机以来我国宏观融资结构的转型特征。研究发现,我国宏观融资结构在过去十余年时间里发生了三方面明显变化:第一,在融资主体结构方面,住户部门净融出和非金融企业部门净融入相对收缩,广义政府部门成为更重要的融资主体;第二,在融资用途结构方面,社会总融资中非生产性和间接生产性融资占比上升,产业融资尤其是制造业融资占比大幅下降,同时存量债务利息支出负担明显加重;第三,在融资渠道结构方面,间接融资和债务融资为主的格局仍然突出的同时,间接融资与直接融资之间、股权融资与债务融资之间的传统边界被突破,"混合融资模式"发展较快,金融业态发展导致了融资链条拉长。宏观融资结构转型根植于我国国民经济储蓄投资格局调整的大背景,它一方面是经济发展阶段变化、经济结构转型、宏观经济周期及政策调整等多种因素综合导致的结果,另一方面也造成了诸如部门杠杆率结构变化和社会融资总体回报率下降等后果。展望未来,提升金融资源配置效率和防范化解重大金融风险的根本在于优化融资结构。本文最后就此提出了若干针对性政策建议。
The declining financial efficiency and the rising leverage ratio in recent years in China are mainly structural rather than aggregate issues. China’s macro financing structure(MFS) has undergone a profound transformation since the 2008 global financial crisis. In this article, we analyze China’s MFS from the perspectives of financing subjects, the use of funds, and financing channels, respectively. We find that China’s MFS has undergone profound changes during over the last 10 years: Firstly, the household sector’s net supply of funds and the non-financial corporate sector’s net demand of funds have relatively shrunk, while the general government sector has become a more important financing entity. Secondly, the proportion of nonproductive use in total social financing has increased and the burden of interest payments on existing debt has been aggravated significantly, while the proportion of industrial financing, especially manufacturing financing, has fallen sharply. Thirdly, while indirect financing and debt financing are still dominant, the traditional boundary between indirect financing and direct financing as well as the boundary between equity financing and debt financing have been broken, and the funding chain becomes longer due to the development of the "hybrid financing model".The transformation of MFS is rooted in the background of the adjustment of national saving and national investment in China. On one hand, it is the result of a combination of factors such as the evolving economic development stage, the transformation of economic structure, and macroeconomic cycles and policy adjustments. On the other hand, it leads to economic consequences such as changes in the structure of liability between sectors and the declining overall rate of return of social funds. The fundamental measure to improve financial efficiency and to prevent and dissolve major financial risks is to optimize the MFS. Certain policy recommendations are put forward at the end of the article.
作者
何德旭
冯明
HE Dexu;FENG Ming(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第8期17-32,共16页
Economic Perspectives
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“宏观债务与高杠杆的形成机制及对策研究”(17CJY054)。
关键词
宏观融资结构
金融效率
杠杆率
Macro Financing Structure
Financial Efficiency
Leverage Ratio
作者简介
何德旭,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院、中国社会科学院大学商学院,邮政编码:100006;冯明,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所、中国社会科学院大学商学院,邮政编码:100732,电子邮箱:fengmingthu@126.com。
