摘要
研究目的:铁路四电系统的可靠性分析对维护、管理、决策具有重要的指导意义。既有研究通常仅对铁路四电系统设备的可靠性指标进行模糊描述,具有高特异性、主观性和不确定性。本文提出一种新颖的基于伪序贯蒙特卡洛法的铁路四电系统可靠性评估方法对常规性指标进行关联分析。研究结论:(1)构建的铁路四电系统和铁路四电设备的可靠性指标评价体系,可为分析铁路四电设备和系统的可靠性提供评价依据;(2)可提高在指标区间不容情况下使用伪蒙特卡洛模拟的概率分布准确性;(3)提出的伪序贯蒙特卡洛算法结合了序贯与非序贯蒙特卡洛算法的优点,能够更加快速准确地求取铁路四电指标故障率和故障时间;(4)通过对四电系统的整体可靠性仿真模拟,按正态分布计算分析得出,有99%的概率认为铁路四电系统整体的可靠系数不小于0.999784140。
Research purposes:Reliability analysis of railway four-electric system has important guiding significance for maintenance management decision.The existing studies usually only vaguely describe the reliability indexes of railway four-electric system equipment,which has high specificity,subjectivity,and uncertainty.In this paper,a novel pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo method-based reliability assessment method of railway four-electric system is proposed to correlate and analyze the regularity indicators.Research conclusions:(1)The reliability index evaluation system of railway four-electric system and railway four-electric equipment is constructed,which provides an evaluation basis for analyzing the reliability of railway four-electric equipment and system.(2)The accuracy of probability distribution using pseudo-Monte Carlo simulation in the case that the index interval is not allowed is enhanced.(3)The pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo algorithm combines the advantages of sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo algorithms,which can more quickly and accurately find the failure rate and failure time of railway four-electric indexes.(4)By simulating the overall reliability of the four electric systems and analyzing them according to the normal distribution,there is a 99%probability that the overall reliability coefficient of the railway four-electric system is not less than 0.999784140.
作者
高华
王卫东
卢睿
汪思成
邱实
GAO Hua;WANG Weidong;LU Rui;WANG Sicheng;QIU Shi(Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410075,China;China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.Ltd,Wuhan,Hubei 430063,China)
出处
《铁道工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2021年第8期65-71,共7页
Journal of Railway Engineering Society
基金
川藏铁路工程若干重大问题研究——可靠性保障战略研究(二期)(2021-XBZD-2)
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(N2019G024)。
关键词
铁路四电
伪序贯蒙特卡洛
可靠性指标
可靠性评估
railway four electric/electronic systems engineering
pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo
reliability index
reliability evaluation
作者简介
高华,1981年出生,女,高级工程师。
