摘要
目的:回顾新医改以来我国基本医疗保险基金收入、支出、结余情况,预测分析2020—2025年我国基本医疗保险基金结余发展趋势。方法:构建GM(1,1)模型预测我国基本医疗保险、职工医疗保险、城乡居民医疗保险基金收支情况,推断基金结余的变化趋势。结果:2020—2025年,我国基本医疗保险收支规模、基金结余持续增长,职工医疗保险基金结余占总体比重增加,城乡居民医疗保险基金结余处于较低水平且逐年减少。结论:基本医疗保险总体运行持续向好,但职工医疗保险、城乡居民医疗保险发展趋势不够合理,需警惕职工医疗保险基金结余过多、城乡居民医疗保险基金收不抵支的情况。今后仍要加强控制基本医疗保险基金支出增长速度,提高职工医疗保险基金结余使用效率,优化城乡居民医疗保险筹资待遇方案,确保基金的可持续发展。
Objective:To review the revenue,expenditure and balance of basic medical insurance fund in China since the new medical reform,and to predict the trend from 2020 to 2025.Methods:Constructing GM(1,1)model to predict the development trend of basic medical insurance fund from 2020 to 2025.Results:From 2020 to 2025,the basic medical insurance revenue,expenditure,fund balance will continue to grow,the proportion of employee medical insurance fund balance in the total will increase,and the balance of urban and rural resident medical insurance fund will be at a low level and decrease year by year.Conclusion:The overall operation of basic medical insurance continues to improve,but it needs to be alert to the situation that the excessive employee medical insurance fund and the insufficient revenue of urban and rural residents medical insurance fund to cover expenditure.In the future,it is still necessary to control the growth rate of basic medical insurance expenditure,improve the utilization efficiency of employee medical insurance fund balance,and optimize the financing treatment scheme of medical insurance for urban and rural residents,so as to ensure the sustainable development of the fund.
作者
吴岚怡
王前
WU Lan-yi;WANG Qian(School of Health Management,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou,510515,China;不详)
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2021年第9期33-38,共6页
Chinese Health Economics
作者简介
吴岚怡(1996-),女,在读硕士,研究方向:医院管理,卫生经济,E-mail:479429173@qq.com;通信作者:王前,E-mail:wangqian@smu.edu.cn。
