摘要
泥石流危险性评价是泥石流防灾减灾工作不可或缺的部分。以帕隆藏布流域为研究区,以多元遥感数据和实地调查数据为数据源,从致灾因子和孕灾环境入手,选取年均降雨量、地层岩性、距断层距离、NDVI、土地利用类型等8个影响因子,利用CF模型和LR模型确定各因子及其分类级别的权重,采用Pearson相关系数法进行因子间的独立性检验,运用ROC曲线对评价结果进行验证。结果表明:1)泥石流危险性的影响因子权重从大到小依次为土地利用类型、年均降雨量、距断层距离、土壤类型、归一化植被指数、地层岩性、坡度、地形起伏度;2)高危险区面积占研究区总面积的17.11%,其泥石流数占研究区泥石流总数的43.62%,表明泥石流发育集中,与实际情况相符;3)模型精度验证AUC为0.903,表明模型评价精度较高,评价结果理想,可为帕隆藏布流域泥石流防治提供辅助决策。
The present paper is to make a hazard assessment of the debris flow in hoping to prevent or reduce the debris flow disasters as an indispensable part of its research goal.For the said research purpose,we would like to choose the current area of the Parlung Zangbo River as a study area in combination with the multi-remote sensing data with its field investigation findings as our data source and 30mx30m grid as the research unit,by starting from the disaster-causing factors and the disaster-potential and hidden environment,say,the 8 influential factors,namely,the annual average rainfall,the stratum lithology,the distance from the fault origin,the NDVI and the topographic fluctuation,to determine all the causes in accordance with the certainty factor model and logistic regression model.Moreover,we have also managed to test the independent factors of the weights of the subclasses and their classification levels via the Pearson correlation coefficient method.The results of our research show that the correlation closeness of the 8 influential factors is minor in degree and therefore can be substituted into the model operations.And,what is more,the ROC curve can help to verify the evaluation results by completing the hazard zoning of the research area.And,then,according to the results of our research,the following conclusions can be gained:(1)The actual order of the weights of the debris flow hazard impact factors can be arranged from big to small in the following manner:the land use type,the annual average rainfall,the distance from the sampling fault,the soil type,the NDVI,the stratum lithology,the slope,the topographic fluctuation,the comparative weights of all the classified factors from the maximum impermeable surface in the land use types,the annual average rainfall,say,the 1664.91-2176.75 mm,and,the distance from the fault:0.05-0.1 km;the soil type:the silt loam;the NDVI value:0.68-0.91,whereas the stratum lithology is quaternary;the slope:0-15 degrees,with the topographic relief being 100-200 m;(2)The hazard potential areas have been found with very low hazards,namely,merely with the hazard percentage of 66.36%of the total area under study with the debris flowing percentage of about 37.22%in the total area.And,simultaneously,the area of the medium hazard levels only accounts for 16.53%;with the flowing rate of the debris being taken as 19.15%.Apart from the above mentioned situations,the area of the high hazard areas that has been found equal to 17.11%and 43.62%of the total debris flow,which belongs to the under-developing stage;(3)And,last of all,the model accuracy has been testified and proven to be equal to 0.903 in AUC value.That is to say,the assessment accuracy of the model under discussion is high with its assessing results being idealistic.And,therefore,in conclusion,the results of the assessment study made in this paper can be made in a position to provide a helpful and valuable decision for the debris flow control in Parlung Zangbo River Zone,in the Southern Tibet.
作者
刘福臻
崔超
王军朝
曹依帆
李伟
LIU Fu-zhen;CUI Chao;WANG Jun-chao;CAO Yi-fan;LI Wei(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Institute of Exploration Technology,China Academy of Geological Sciences,Chengdu 611730,China;Land Reserve and Consolidation Center of Jingyang District,Deyang 610500,Sichuan,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期1693-1703,共11页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
中国地质调查局项目(DD20160279)。
作者简介
刘福臻,副教授,硕士生导师,从事数字化测量与防灾减灾研究,2233896@qq.com。
