摘要
城市生活垃圾综合管理主要是指选择合适的方案、政策手段等来实现特定的管理目标。选择适宜的研究方法是开展城市生活垃圾管理科学决策的重要基础和保障。综述了近年来该领域常用的相关研究方法和研究进展,总结分析了以统计分析、多准则决策分析、全生命周期分析、费用效益分析等为代表的传统数学模型方法和以系统动力学、基于Agent的建模等为代表的复杂系统模拟方法两大类方法的适用场景、优缺点和研究进展,分析了未来该领域研究的趋势和需重点关注的方向。研究发现:传统的数学模型方法被广泛应用于生活垃圾管理决策领域,成为支撑决策的重要研究工具,但这类方法通常大多以单一主体为研究对象,难以解释各种因素对其它主体及整个生活垃圾管理系统的作用,且大多为静态的或对某个或某几个时间点进行分析,容易忽略系统性和系统中各主体间的非线性关系、行为的交互作用及随时空的动态变化等。未来研究需充分关注城市生活垃圾管理系统的复杂性和系统不同主体间的行为交互作用,加强系统模拟模型开发,开展系统性政策评估分析等,为城市生活垃圾精细化管理决策提供科学支撑。
The integrated management of municipal solid waste mainly refers to the selection of appropriate plans,policy tools,etc.to achieve specific management goals.Appropriate research methods serve as an important foundation and ensure scientific decision-making in municipal solid waste management.This paper reviews the related research methods commonly used in this field in recent years as well as the research progress,summarizes and analyzes the applicable scenarios,advantages and disadvantages,and research progress of the conventional mathematical model methods represented by statistical analysis,multi-criteria decision analysis,full life cycle analysis,cost-benefit analysis,etc.,and the complex system simulation methods represented by system dynamics and agent-based modeling,etc.The future research trends in this field and the directions are analyzed.The study found that traditional mathematical model methods were widely used in the field of municipal solid waste management and became an important research tool to support decision-making.However,most of these methods usually only take a single subject as the research object,and cannot explain the effects of various factors on other subjects and the entire domestic waste management system.Further,these methods,most of which are static,analyze a single or several time spans,but downplays the system and the nonlinear relationship between the subjects in the system,the interaction of behavior,and the dynamic changes along with time and space.Future researches need to pay full attention to the complexity of the municipal solid waste management system and the behavioral interaction between different subjects of the system,strengthen the development of system simulation models,carry out systematic policy evaluation and analysis,etc.,to provide support for the decision-making of refined management of municipal solid waste.
作者
孟小燕
张宇婷
王毅
MENG Xiaoyan;ZHANG Yuting;WANG Yi(Division of Sustainable Development Strategy,Institutes of Sciences and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第16期6303-6313,共11页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71904184)
国家重点研发计划“固废资源化”重点专项项目(2018YFC1901505)
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长青年基金项目(E0X3821Q)。
关键词
城市生活垃圾
数学模型
复杂系统
管理决策
研究进展
发展前景
municipal solid waste
mathematical model
complex system
management decision-making
research progress
development prospects
作者简介
通讯作者:王毅,E⁃mail:wangyi@casisd.cn。
