摘要
文章基于年度统计数据,构建区域经济增长收敛性的评价模型,分析2002—2019年四大区域板块经济增速和人均增速的差异性,对其变化和比较优势进行了分析与解释,提出了“十四五”时期四大区域板块的发展路径。研究发现:①四大区域板块的经济增速形成2002—2007、2008—2013和2014—2019年三个明显阶段,对应我国加入世贸组织、国际金融危机、经济新常态等历史时期,分别反映了不同区域不同时期的比较优势和领先作用。②2002—2010年四大区域板块之间存在明显的σ收敛,但2010—2019年期间不明显,2002—2019年实际GDP增速和人均GDP增速存在绝对β收敛,表明区域间发展差异在逐步缩小,区域协调发展战略和区域经济政策成效明显。③在近20年的发展中,各区域板块的比较优势实现了重塑和转换,东北地区粮食、生态等功能明显提升,西部地区维护生态安全和边境安全等功能增强,其中川渝陕等省份经济和人口集聚能力上升,中部地区制造业基地、交通枢纽、粮食生产基地的地位不断巩固,东部地区创新中心、开放中心、经济中心的作用持续加强。④“十四五”期间,四大区域板块将在社会主义现代化建设中继续发挥比较优势,东部地区重点优化创新和开放举措,提升核心竞争力,打造创新动力源;中部和川渝陕等西部重点地区完善基础设施和城镇功能,提高人口和经济支撑能力,培育发展增长极;东北和西部地区重点促进生态文明建设、乡村振兴和重点区域发展,增强内生发展动力,巩固社会主义现代化建设的支撑带。
Balancing regional development is always a major issue of national development.In the past 18 years,four regions are the foundation to plan and carry out the regional policy in China,economic growth difference and development pathway are both the researching focuses of China's regional coordinated development.Based on the data of National Bureau of Statistics,this paper,constructs an evaluation model of regional economic growth convergence,and analyzes the differentiation of economic growth and per capita growth in four regions of China from 2002 to 2019,furthermore describes and explains their changes and regional comparative advantages,and puts forward the development paths in the 14th five-year plan.The results shows that:1)Since the beginning of this century,the economic growth of China's four regions has formed three obvious time periods(2002-2007,2008-2013 and 2014-2019)which match important historical periods,such as China's accession to the WTO,international financial crisis and new normal of China's economy,which respectively reflect the leading role of each region.2)There is obviousσconvergence among four regions in 2002-2010,contrary to four regions in 2010-2019.And there is an absoluteβconvergence of in the real GDP growth of four regions and the growth rate of per capita real GDP in 2002-2019,which means that the development gap between four regions is gradually narrowing,and the coordinated development strategy and regional economic policy work well.3)In 2002-2019,the agriculture and ecological functions improved significantly in northeast China;The functions of ecological security and border security enhanced greatly in western China;Economic and population agglomeration showed increasing trend in Sichuan,Chongqing and Shaanxi;The manufacturing base,transport hub and agriculture base in central China are consolidated;The roles of innovation center,opening center and economic center in eastern China are strengthened.4)During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,it should focus on the the innovation and opening-up measures,and enhance competitiveness in eastern China;It should focus on the the improvement of infrastructure and urban functions,and enhance the support capacities of population and economy in central China,Sichuan,Chongqing and Shaanxi;It should promote the development of ecological civilization,rural revitalization,develop key regions,enhance endogenous ability and consolidate the socialist modernization.
作者
许欣
张文忠
XU Xin;ZHANG Wenzhong(Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期1-9,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41871170)
中国科学院美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项(XDA23100302)。
关键词
发展路径
增长差异性
比较优势
区域协调发展
“一带一路”
高质量发展
创新发展
developing pathway
growth difference
competitive advantage
regional coordinated development
the Belt&Road
high-quality development
innovative development
作者简介
许欣(1982-),男,湖北襄阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为区域经济、工业城市转型和产业发展规划等。E-mail:xvxin@ndrc.gov.cn;通讯作者:张文忠(1966-),男,内蒙古呼和浩特人,研究员,博士生导师,研究方向为宜居城市、资源型城市和产业发展规划等。E-mail:zhangwz@igsnrr.ac.cn。
