摘要
为解决尾矿库安全隐患及风险,应用基于证据(Evidence-based)方法和事故树分析模型,辨识并表征尾矿库事故影响因素、隐患及耦合状态,根据事件发生可能性、潜在后果严重性和受体暴露程度相关独立参数,给出尾矿库事故风险表征方法,建立尾矿库事故多情景、多阶段(3段)、多层次和多等级(4级)风险防控框架。结果表明:对尾矿库5类事故(溃坝、漫顶、渗流、输送冒漏、库区扬尘)进行分析,得出基本事件或蛰伏隐患对尾矿库事故结构重要度或影响程度,给出尾矿库事故风险3维表征方法,并结合巴西布鲁马迪尼奥尾矿库进行实例应用,确定尾矿库风险等级(最高级4级),验证方法可行性与有效性。研究结果可为尾矿库减灾防灾提供理论支撑与实践指导。
In order to solve the potential safety hazards and risks of tailings pond,facing the life cycle of tailings pond,the influencing factors,potential hazards and coupling status of accidents in the tailings pond were identified and characterized by using the evidence-based method and the fault tree analysis model.According to the related independent parameters including the occurrence probability of event,the severity of potential consequences and the exposure degree of receptor,the risk characterization method of tailings pond accidents was given,and the risk prevention and control framework with multi-scenario,multi-stage(3 stages),multi-level and multi-grade(4 grades)was established.The results showed that through analyzing five types of accidents such as dam break,overtopping,seepage,transportation spill and leakage,and dust in the reservoir area,the structural importance or influence degree of basic events or potential hazards on the tailings pond accidents were obtained.A three-dimensional characterization method of the risks of tailings pond accidents was presented,and risk grade of this tailings pond was determined as grade 4 as the highest grade,which verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.The research results can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the disaster reduction and prevention of tailings ponds.
作者
马波
陈聪聪
李仲学
MA Bo;CHEN Congcong;LI Zhongxue(School of Civil and Resources Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of High Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines,Ministry of Education,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期11-17,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804605)。
关键词
尾矿库
事故
隐患
风险
tailings pond
accident
potential hazard
risk
作者简介
马波,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为尾矿库风险表征。
