摘要
农村商业银行是农村金融发展的核心,是服务“三农”、推动乡村振兴战略的可靠保障。以30家农村商业银行为研究对象,运用改进DEA分析方法及灰色预测模型,对其经营效率进行分析及预测。研究表明,我国农村商业银行全要素生产率呈稳步上升趋势,受技术效率与技术进步效率影响较大,在未来保持稳步增长态势,不同地区生产率差异呈收敛趋势。技术效率始终保持相对稳定状态,在临界值1上下浮动,受纯技术进步效率影响较大,地区差异对其影响较小。在此基础上提出合理调整规模、加强金融创新等政策建议。
Rural commercial banks are the core of rural financial development and a reliable guarantee for serving the issue of“agriculture,countryside and farmers”and promoting rural revitalization strategies.This paper takes 30 rural commercial banks as the research object,uses improved DEA analysis method and grey forecast model to analyze and predict their operating efficiency.The research shows that China’s rural commercial banks’total factor productivity is steadily increasing,which is largely affected by the efficiency of technical efficiency and technological progress.It will maintain a steady growth trend in the next three years,and the difference in productivity in different regions is converging.Technical efficiency has always maintained a relatively stable state,fluctuating above and below the critical value 1,which is greatly affected by the efficiency of pure technological progress,and regional differences have little impact on it.On the basis of this,it puts forward policy recommendations such as rationally adjusting the scale and strengthening financial innovation.
作者
董树功
吴圣略
Dong Shugong;Wu Shenglue(School of Economics and Management,Tianjin University of Technology and Education,Tianjin 300222,China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2021年第4期27-37,共11页
Exploration of Financial Theory
基金
天津市教委社会科学重大项目“构建以信用为基础的新型监管机制研究”(2020JWZD15)。
关键词
农村商业银行
经营效率
全要素生产率
DEA模型
灰色预测法
rural commercial bank
operating efficiency
total factor productivity
DEA model
grey forecasting method
作者简介
董树功,男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为产业经济、信用经济;吴圣略,男,主要研究方向为金融工程与金融管理。
