农地转入、农户风险偏好与种植结构调整——基于CHFS微观数据的实证分析被引量：48

Land Transfer,Appetite for Risk and Crop Pattern——Empirical Analysis Based on Micro Data of CHFS

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摘要农地转入对种植结构调整的影响一直是学术界关注的重点话题,但对农户风险偏好因素却有所忽视。因此,本文尝试从农户风险偏好的角度给予农地转入影响种植结构调整的新解释,并基于2015年中国家庭金融调查数据进行实证分析。在利用倾向得分匹配法修正了潜在的样本自选择偏误后发现,农地转入显著促进了种植结构的"非粮化"调整,并且具有明显的农户风险偏好情境依赖特征,具体表现为农户的风险偏好会强化农地转入对种植结构"非粮化"的影响。进一步研究发现,农户风险偏好的强化作用在农地转入规模方面显著,但在农地转入年限方面不显著。此外,农地转入对种植结构的调整效应具有高度的异质性,其中家庭成员中有村干部农户的影响效应要显著大于没有村干部家庭成员的农户,并且该影响在非贫困户中显著,而在贫困户中不显著。本文认为,应警惕农地转入带来的种植结构"非粮化"趋势,确保粮食安全。 The impact of farmland transfer on the adjustment of planting structure has always been a key topic of concern in academia, but the factor of risk preference of farmers has been neglected. To this end, this article attempts to give a new explanation from the perspective of farmers’ risk appetite for the transfer of farmland to affect the adjustment of planting structure and conduct an empirical analysis based on the microdata of the "China Household Financial Survey" in 2015. After the possible sample self-selection bias was addressed by a method of propensity score matching, it was found that the transfer of farmland significantly promoted the "non-grain" adjustment of the crop pattern, and it has obvious characteristics of farmers’ risk preference situation dependence, which is specifically expressed as farmers’ risk appetite strengthens the impact of the land transfer on planting structure. Further research found that the strengthening effect of farmers’ risk appetite is significant in the scale of farmland transfer-in, but it is not significant in the years of farmland transfer-in. In addition, the adjustment effect of the transfer-in of farmland on the adjustment of the planting structure is highly heterogeneous. Among them, the effect of households with village cadres among household members is significantly greater than that of without village cadres, and the impact is significant among non-poor households, and not significant among households of poor. This article believes that we should be alert to the trend of "non-grain" of the planting structure brought by the transfer-in of farmland to ensure food security.

作者高延雷张正岩王志刚 GAO Yanlei;ZHANG Zhengyan;WANG Zhigang

机构地区中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

出处《农业技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第8期66-80,共15页 Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基金国家自然科学基金面上项目“食品安全城乡差距效应的测度、形成机理及其对消费行为的影响机制研究”(编号:71773136) 国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“基于目标导向的新型农业支持保护政策体系研究”(编号:71841010) 北京新农村建设研究基地2019年专项“乡村振兴战略背景下北京市新型农业支持保护政策体系研究”(编号:PXM2019-014207-000016) 清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目(编号:201915)。

关键词农地转入风险偏好种植结构调节效应倾向得分匹配 Farmland transfer Appetite for risk Crop pattern Moderating effects Propensity score matching