摘要
针对属性权重未知,属性值为二维不确定语言变量的多阶段多属性决策问题,提出一种新的应急物资运输动态决策方法。首先,根据突发事件的动态演变性,将应急决策过程分成若干决策阶段,采用2DULPGWA算子将决策信息集结为群评价矩阵;其次,通过熵权法结合DEMATEL法求解每个阶段的综合指标权重;再次,根据心理参考点与属性值之间的关系构造损益矩阵,结合前景理论得到综合前景矩阵,依次求解当前阶段下的最优方案;最后,通过实例验证所提出方法的有效性和可行性。
Aiming at the problem of multi-stage and multi-attribute decision making with unknown attribute weight and attribute value as two-dimensional uncertain linguistic variables,a new dynamic decision-making method for emergency material transportation is proposed.Firstly,according to the dynamic evolution of emergencies,the emergency decision-making process is divided into several decision-making stages,and the decision information is assembled into a group evaluation matrix by 2 DULPGWA operator.Secondly,the comprehensive index weights of each stage are solved by the entropy weight method combined with the DEMATEL method.Thirdly,according to the relationship between psychological reference point and attribute value,the profit and loss matrix is constructed,and the prospect theory matrix is combined with the prospect theory to solve the best scheme under the current stage.Finally,the validity of the proposed method are verified by an example.
作者
王琪
卢美顺
WANG Qi;LU Meishun(School of Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai,200444,China)
出处
《上海管理科学》
2021年第4期95-102,共8页
Shanghai Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.71502098)
上海市科技发展基金软科学研究资助项目(No.19692109000)
上海市科技计划资助项目(No.2069210940)
上海大学横向课题项目
上海大学管理学院培育专项项目(2020-SDGY-KA-003)。
关键词
应急决策
二维不确定语言
前景理论
动态决策
emergency decision making
2-dimensional uncertain linguistic variables,prospect theory
dynamic decision making
作者简介
王琪(1994-),女,四川成都人,硕士研究生,研究方向:应急决策、应急系统风险控制,E-mail:2205808937@qq com;通信作者:卢美顺(1994-),女,山东烟台人,硕士研究生,研究方向:应急决策、应急系统风险控制,E-mail:lumeishun@163.com。
