摘要
台风灾害的频发导致电网大规模停电事故,给国民经济带来巨大损失,为评估电网应对台风天气的能力以及辨识电网在极端气象下的风险态势,基于态势感知技术,提出面向台风气象的电网运行风险态势感知方法,建立了台风下电网实时运行风险指标体系。首先,态势觉察阶段以台风气象数据、电网结构参数、地理数据构建风场模型;其次,在态势理解阶段提出基于时变风速的贝叶斯网络,建立考虑风速和断线故障导致潮流转移的电网时变风险传播模型,并采用拉丁超立方抽样的蒙特卡洛模拟法,通过最优直流潮流进行态势理解,然后提出态势呈现指标体系,以实现线路风险态势、负荷水平态势、电网韧性态势的呈现和预测。采用IEEE-RTS 79标准节点算例进行仿真,结果表明面向台风气象的电网运行风险态势感知方法及指标能够有效评估电网运行风险态势。
The frequent occurrence of typhoon disasters leads to large-scale power outage accidents in the power grid,which brings huge losses to the national economy.In order to evaluate the power grid’s ability to deal with typhoon weather and identify the risk situation of the power grid under extreme weather,on the basis of the situational awareness technology,we propose a situational awareness method for power grid operation risk under typhoon weather,and establish a real-time risk index system for power grid operation under typhoon weather.Firstly,in the situation perception stage,the wind field model and line fault model are constructed by using typhoon data,power grid structure parameters,and geographical data.Then,in the situation comprehension stage,a Bayesian network based on time-varying wind speed is proposed,and a time-varying risk propagation model of power grid considering wind speed and power flow transfer is established.The Monte Carlo simulation method based on Latin hypercube sampling is used through the optimal DC power flow.Finally,a situation projection index system is proposed to realize the projection and prediction of line risk situation,load level situation,and power grid resilience situation during the situation projection stage.The simulation results show that the situation awareness method of power grid operation risk under typhoon weather can be adopted to effectively evaluate the power grid operation risk situation based on IEEE-RTS 79 standard example.
作者
李大虎
袁志军
何俊
邓长虹
贺忠尉
黄文涛
LI Dahu;YUAN Zhijun;HE Jun;DENG Changhong;HE Zhongwei;HUANG Wentao(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China;State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430077,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Enshi Power Supply Company,State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Enshi 445000,China)
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期2301-2311,共11页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
湖北工业大学高层次人才基金(BSQD2019016)。
关键词
台风灾害
实时态势感知
贝叶斯网络
运行风险态势
电网韧性
typhoon disaster
real-time situation awareness
Bayesian network
operational risk situation
power grid resilience assessment
作者简介
李大虎,1978-,男,博士,教授级高工,硕导,主要从事电力系统运行与控制的研究工作,E-mail:6517562@qq.com;袁志军,1997-,男,硕士生,主要从事电力系统运行与控制、韧性电力系统评估研究工作,E-mail:yuanzj_hbut@163.com;何俊,1987-,男,博士,高工,硕导,主要从事电力系统安全稳定分析、新能源与能源互联网规划、设计与调度研究工作,E-mail:apm874@163.com;通讯作者:邓长虹,1963-,女,博士,教授,博导,主要从事大电网安全稳定分析及控制、新能源接入及电网智能控制等研究工作,E-mail:dengch@whu.cn。
