摘要
从双边贸易价值链嵌入的前向嵌入度与后向嵌入度指标入手,分析价值链嵌入对汇率出口弹性的影响机制,并以中国对美国出口为例对影响情况进行实证检验。结果表明,中美双边汇率变动对中国出口的影响显著,但影响效率下降。按行业分类,中国低技术行业出口受汇率变动的影响要高于高技术行业,高技术行业出口中的后向对冲效应与前向竞争效应均显著高于低技术行业。汇率的直接影响与价值链嵌入效应的双重差异,将导致人民币兑美元升值后,中国对美出口中高技术行业产品比重的上升。
This paper defined the indicators of forward embedding and backward embedding of global value chains in bilateral trades,analyzed the influence mechanism of global value chains on export effects of exchange rate changes,and also examined how the embedding of the Sino-US value chains affected the export effects of exchange rate changes.The results show that changes in the bilateral exchange rate have a significant impact on China’s exports,but the impact efficiency is reduced.Classified by industry,China’s low-tech industry exports are more affected by exchange rate changes than high-tech industries.The backward hedging effect and forward competitive effect in the exports of high-tech industries are significantly higher than those of low-tech industries.The double difference between the direct impact of the exchange rates and the embedding effects of the value chains will lead to an increase in the proportion of high-tech products in China’s exports to the United States after the appreciation of CNY against USD.
作者
印梅
张二震
Yin Mei;Zhang Er-zhen
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期53-60,共8页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社科基金项目“全球价值链嵌入背景下汇率不确定与我国出口贸易‘稳中提质’研究”(19BJY189)。
关键词
价值链嵌入
对冲效应
竞争效应
中美
Value Chain Embedding
Hedging Effect
Competitive Effect
Sino-US
作者简介
印梅,南通大学对外开放研究院副教授,经济学博士。研究方向:全球化生产与中国产业发展。南通,226019;张二震,南京大学长三角经济社会发展研究中心教授,南通大学对外开放研究院院长。研究方向:世界经济理论与实践。南京,210093。
