摘要
土地利用类型格局变化对于区域经济以及资源可持续发展规划有着显著的影响作用。基于遥感(remote sensing,RS)和地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)技术,应用土地利用动态度、土地利用程度指数、土地利用转移矩阵、CA-Markov模型对干热河谷典型区元谋县1990—2020年土地利用变化及2020—2025年的土地利用发展趋势进行了分析。结果表明:1990—2020年30 a间,元谋县的草地、水域、城镇用地面积增加,林地、耕地、未利用地面积减少,其中城镇用地面积增加速率最大;整体上,元谋县的土地利用变化速度较快,土地利用程度有所提高,但土地利用程度仍处于中等水平;各种土地利用类型在近30 a转换频繁,主要以草地转入,耕地转出为主;CA-Markov模型预测结果表明2020—2025年期间元谋县除草地、林地、水域、其他用地面积呈现下降趋势外,未来耕地、城镇用地面积有所增加,其中城镇用地面积在未来5年内的增长速率为11.05%,预测模型的Kappa系数为0.92,说明模型结果和转换规则可信度较高。研究结果可为元谋县土地资源管理与合理利用提供科学依据。
Changes in the pattern of land use types have a significant impact on regional economy and sustainable resource development planning.Based on remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)technology,land use dynamic attitude,land use degree index,land use transfer matrix and CA-Markov model were used to analyze land use change from 1990 to 2020 and land use development trend from 2020 to 2025 in Yuanmou County,a typical area of dry-hot valley.The results show that during the 30 years from 1990 to 2020,the area of grassland,water and urban land increases,while the area of woodland,cultivated land and unused land decreases,and the increase rate of the urban land area is the largest.On the whole,the speed of land use change in Yuanmou County is fast,and the land use degree has been improved,but the land use degree is still in the middle level.In recent 30 years,various land use types changes frequently,mainly from grassland to cultivated land and from cultivated land to cultivated land.The prediction results of CA-Markov model show a trend of decline for the area of weeding land,woodland,water area and other land use in Yuanmou County from 2020 to 2025,while a trend of decline for the area of cultivated land and urban land use in the future.The urban land use area increases at a rate of 11.05%in the next five years,and the Kappa coefficient of the prediction model is 0.92.It shows that the model results and transformation rules are more reliable.Scientific basis can be provided by the research results for Yuanmou County land resource management and rational utilization.
作者
陈越豪
何光熊
史亮涛
方海东
史正涛
CHEN Yue-hao;HE Guang-xiong;SHI Liang-tao;FANG Hai-dong;SHI Zheng-tao(Department of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Institute of Tropical Eco-agriculture Science,Yunnan academy of Agriculture Science,Yuanmou 651300,China;Yunnan Dry-hot Valley Botanical Garden,Yuanmou 651300,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2021年第20期8366-8375,共10页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
云南省重点研发计划(2019BC001-02)
云南省水利厅水利科技项目(2014003)。
作者简介
第一作者:陈越豪(1996-),男,汉族,广东揭阳人,硕士研究生。研究方向:遥感技术开发与应用。E-mail:1329213225@qq.com;通信作者:史正涛(1964-),男,汉族,甘肃宁县人,教授,博士研究生导师。研究方向:遥感技术开发与应用。E-mail:shizhengtao@163.com。
