摘要
随着我国碳达峰与碳中和承诺的提出,减碳成为能源系统的政策研究重点。电力行业作为碳排放的主力军以及支撑终端电气化发展的关键行业,对于煤炭消费的控制显得尤为重要,平衡电力需求增长与碳减排成为低碳发展阶段的新挑战。为此,分别对“十四五”期间煤电与新能源驱动下的电气化路径进行了情景分析。研究结果表明,2种驱动因素下煤电均可以较低的利用小时数满足电力供应,但新能源驱动的电气化路径显然更契合碳减排要求,更利于我国碳目标的实现。严控煤电规模、大力发展新能源、加快完善市场化机制、统筹加强电力资源管理应成为电力行业的主要发展方向。
With the proposal of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality commitment,carbon abatement has become a policy priority for the energy system.As the largest source of carbon emissions and the key industry supporting the development of terminal electrification,the power industry is particularly important for the control of coal consumption,how to balance the growth of electricity demand and carbon emission reduction has become a new challenge in the low-carbon development stage.On the basis,a scenario analysis of the electrification paths driven by coal power and renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was carried out.The results showed that coal power could meet the electricity supply with lower utilization hours in both driver scenarios,but the renewable energy-driven electrification path was clearly more suitable for carbon emission reduction requirements and more conducive to the achievement of China's carbon targets.Controlling the scale of coal-fired power capacity strictly,developing the renewable energy vigorously,accelerating the improvement of market-oriented mechanisms,coordinating and strengthening flexible resource management should be the main development direction of the power industry.
作者
袁家海
宋岩
YUAN Jiahai;SONG Yan(North China Electric Power University,Changping,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《中国煤炭》
2021年第7期9-16,共8页
China Coal
关键词
碳减排
电力供需分析
煤电调控
政策研究
carbon abatement
power supply and demand analysis
coal power regulation
policy research
作者简介
袁家海(1979-),男,安徽合肥人,教授。现就职于华北电力大学经济与管理学院,主要从事电力规划、能源经济与政策研究等方面的研究。E-mail:yuanjiahai@ncepu.edu.cn。
