摘要
利用凉山州9个烤烟主产县1991—2017年烤烟产量资料和同期国家气象观测站的气象资料,通过年际变化趋势处理,分离出烤烟趋势产量和气象产量,采用积分回归方法,研究光、温、水等气象因子对烤烟产量的动态影响,建立烤烟气象产量综合模拟模型。结果表明:(1)气温、降水、日照均能显著影响凉山州烤烟产量;(2)县域间影响烤烟产量的关键气象因子有所差异,总体上温度的影响系数更大;(3)宁南县和会东县的关键气象因子相同且动态影响相似;(4)建立的分县和凉山州烤烟气象产量综合模拟模型模拟精度高,模拟偏差仅2.4%~4.6%。
Based on the data of flue-cured tobacco yield from 1991 to 2017 in the nine tobacco producing counties of Liangshan prefecture and the meteorological data of national meteorological observation station in the same period,the trend yield and meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco were separated through the interannual trend processing.The dynamic effects of meteorological factors such as sunshine,air temperature and precipitation on the yield of flue-cured tobacco were studied by integral regression method,and the comprehensive simulation model of meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco was established.The results show that:(1)Air temperature,precipitation and sunshine can significantly affect the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Liangshan Prefecture.(2)The key meteorological factors affecting the yield of flue-cured tobacco are different among counties,while the influence of air temperature is more significant.(3)The key meteorological factors in Ningnan County and Huidong County are the same and their dynamic effects are similar.(4)The accuracy of the model is high with the deviation of only 2.4%-4.6%.
作者
马献菊
蔡元刚
吕洋
王明田
MA Xianju;CAI Yuangang;LYU Yang;WANG Mingtian(Liangshan Meteorological Office,Xichang,Sichuan 6l5000,China;Mianyang Meteorological Bureau,Mianyang,Sichuan 621000,China;Meishan Meteorological Office,Meishan,Sichuan 620010,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu,Sichuan 610072,China;Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 6l0066,China)
出处
《西昌学院学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第2期31-38,共8页
Journal of Xichang University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
凉山州科知局重点科技项目(17YYJS0102)
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05)。
关键词
烤烟
气象因子
动态影响
综合模型
凉山州
flue-cured tobacco
meteorological factors
dynamic influence
comprehensive model
Liangshan
作者简介
马献菊(1973-),女,四川西昌人,工程师,本科,研究方向:气象预报、农业气象;通信作者:蔡元刚(1967-),男,四川仪陇人,正研级高级工程师,硕士,研究方向:农业气象、气候。
