摘要
利用甘肃东部22个县(区、市)1965-2018年气象资料、1995-2018年苹果产量、种植面积资料和近5a的其它社会经济统计资料,综合分析筛选包括危险性、易损性、敏感性和防灾减灾能力4个方面的12个指标,构建苹果气象灾害综合风险评估指标体系,采用折衷方法计算风险指标权重,进一步构建风险指数评估模型,应用GIS技术制作风险区划图,评估苹果气象灾害综合风险。结果表明:甘肃东部苹果气象灾害综合风险分布呈现出由东南向西北加重的趋势,重度以上综合风险区主要分布在沿关山山区和六盘山东西两麓,以及陇东黄土高原北部,风险指数大于0.45;中度综合风险区主要分布在陇东中南部和渭河流域大部,风险指数在0.25~0.45;轻度综合风险区仅分散性分布在渭河流域川区和陇东东南部的小部分地区,风险指数低于0.25。
Eastern Gansu is the most important apple base of Gansu province,but drought,freezing damage,hail and other meteorological disasters occured frequently during growth period of apple,which could lead to loss in yield and quality.Therefore,it was necessary to evaluate the integrated risk of multiple meteorological disasters on the growth of apple.In this paper,the meteorological data of 22 counties(districts/cities)in eastern Gansu from 1965 to 2018,planting area and yield of apple from 1995 to 2018,and other socio-economic statistics data for the latest 5 years were employed.12 indices of 4 kinds were analyzed and selected,and the integrated risk index system was established using disaster risk analysis theory.The weights of risk indices were determined by the compromising method between analytic hierarchy process method and entropy-coefficient method.In addition,the risk value of each evaluated unit was calculated.Therefore,an integrated risk evaluation index model of meteorological disasters was established and the risk was zoned and evaluated with GIS technique.The studied region was divided into four-risk-grade areas according to the integrated risk value,including mild risk area,moderate risk area,severe risk area and severity risk area.The results showed that hazard of the disaster-causing-factors was the most important factor influencing the integrated risk,the vulnerability of the hazard-affected body takes the second place,while the sensitivity of disaster environment and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability play alleviative roles in the risk factors composition.The integrated risk of meteorological disasters on apple growth in eastern Gansu shows a trend of increasing from southeast to northwest.The regions with severe and severity risk were mainly distributed along the mountainous area of Guanshan,the both sides of Liupan Mountain,and the north of Longdong Loess Plateau,with the risk index value of above 0.45;the regions with the moderate risk were mainly distributed in the south-central part of Longdong,and most of the Weihe River Basin,with the value between 0.25 to 0.45;the regions with the mild risk were only scattered in a small part of the Weihe River Basin,and the southeast of Longdong,with the value of below 0.45.
作者
杨小利
周嘉
周安宁
张炜
吴颖娟
YANG Xiao-li;ZHOU Jia;ZHOU An-ning;ZHANG Wei;WU Ying-juan(Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA,Lanzhou 730020,China;Pingliang Meteorological Bureau,Pingliang 744000;The School of Management Xi,an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049;Pingliang Information Engineering School,Pingliang 744000)
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期518-529,共12页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所创新团队(GHSCXTD-2020-2)
甘肃省气象局科研项目“甘肃东部果树多灾种气象灾害综合风险评估”(Ms2020-18)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)“我国北方干旱致灾过程及机理”(GYHY201506001)。
关键词
苹果
多灾种
气象灾害
风险评估
Apple
Multiple
Meteorological disasters
Risk evaluation
作者简介
通讯作者:周安宁,高级讲师,研究方向为应用数学,E-mail:plzan1@163.com;第一作者:杨小利,E-mail:plyxl1@126.com。
