摘要
保护层分析(LOPA)是一种数量级层面上的半定量风险评估方法,它通常以定性风险评估为基础,以相对定量风险分析更短的时间及更少的资源为特点而得到广泛应用。在利用LOPA进行风险分析时,需要确定各类场景修正因子,其中点火概率由于影响因素多、现有确定方法较为粗糙,导致较高的不确定性,使得LOPA分析结果的一致性难以保证。根据OGP提供的经验数据,对不同泄漏速率下的点火概率进行数据的完善与补充,得出简化后的点火概率计算模型,在确保点火概率相对准确的同时简化点火概率的计算方法,为LOPA中点火概率的取值提供了依据。同时采用显著性检验的分析方法研究了不同泄漏特征对于点火概率的影响,为LOPA分析中保护层的选取与设计提供了建议。
The present paper is aimed to ensure and assure the consistency of LOPA( short for layer of the protection analysis)by means of improving the accuracy of the ignition probability,which is a kind of conditional modifier. In the said paper,the data of ignition probability at the different rates can be improved and succeeded,whereas a simplified calculation model of the ignition probability can be derived to calculate the ignition probability with the linear interpolation method based on the empirical data provided by OGP( short for the international association of oil & gas producers). The said method for such calculation of the ignition probability can be simplified so as to ensure and guarantee the relative accuracy of the said ignition probability,for the validity of such probability can not only provide for a basis as to the layer of protection analysis,it can also be adopted to study the influence of the different leakage characteristics on the ignition probability and determine whether or not the effects of the various leakage features are significant on the ignition probability.Among such leakage features,the degrees or the extents of the impact by the above leakage features can be various due to their distinct plant sizes. And,in turn,the results of our analysis are likely to demonstrate that the air circulation may lead to the increase of the ignition probability partly in some plant areas. However,as to the large plants,much less effects would be made due to the existence of the fire dykes on the ignition probability,though in small plants,the fire dykes are likely to affect the ignition probability. In addition,ignition probability can also be affected by the difference of the leaking substance. And,therefore,the ignition probability of flammable gas exceeds that of flammable liquid given the data. And,therefore,through the significance analysis,we would like to bring about the suggestions for selection and design of protective layers in LOPA analysis. In addition,a simple case has to be enumerated to illustrate the application of the use of the simplified calculation model so as to select and design better protective layers.
作者
王海清
刘美晨
李素杰
李娜
WANG Hai-qing;LIU Mei-chen;LI Su-jie;LI Na(College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;Science and Technology R&D Center of Pipeline Transportation and Storage Company,Xuzhou 221008,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期490-497,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2017MEE008)。
关键词
安全工程
泄漏特征
点火概率
显著性检验
safety engineering
leak characteristics
ignition probability
significance test
作者简介
王海清,教授,博士生导师,从事安全仪表系统、工艺灾害分析、报警管理和可靠性RAM分析等研究,wanghaiqing@upc.edu.cn。
