摘要
北京地区现有的泥石流降雨临界值多从泥石流的历史降雨数据统计而来,缺乏结合泥石流发生机理与降雨特征的分析。通过收集相关文献资料,对北京山区泥石流进行了分析,并根据其起动机理,采用相应的泥石流预报模型计算出了泥石流发生的降雨临界值。结果表明:(1)高强度降雨与研究区泥石流暴发有着密切关系,且绝大多数为短历时降雨。(2)当1 h激发雨量I≥42 mm,且前期累积降雨量B≥130 mm的时候,发生泥石流灾害的可能性很大;当1 h激发雨量30≤I<42 mm,且前期累积降雨量75≤B<130 mm的时候,发生泥石流的可能性中等;当1 h激发降雨量I<30 mm,且前期累积降雨量B<75 mm的时候,发生泥石流的可能性较低。(3)在综合降雨临界值的基础上,北京山区红色降雨预警值为R*≥600 mm、橙色降雨预警值为600>R*≥480 mm、黄色降雨预警值为480>R*≥300 mm、蓝色降雨预警值为R*<300 mm。研究结果可为北京山区泥石流防灾减灾提供依据。
At present, the current rainfall threshold of debris flow in Beijing are mostly collected from the historical rainfall data of debris flow, lacking the analysis that combines with the debris flow mechanism and rainfall characteristics.By searching relevant document, this paper analyzed the debris flow in the mountainous areas of Beijing and calculated the rainfall threshold triggering debris flow according to their failure mechanism and the corresponding debris flow forecasting model.The results show that:(1) heavy rainfall is closely related to debris flow in the study area, and most of them are short duration rainfall.(2) the early warning range of debris flow in the mountainous areas of Beijing is as follow: when the 1h triggering rainfall is I≥42 mm and the previous accumulated rainfall is B≥130 mm, it is highly likely to cause debris flow;when the 1h triggering rainfall is 30≤I<42 mm and the previous accumulated rainfall is 75≤B<130mm, the likelihood of debris flow is moderate;when 1h triggering rainfall is I<30mm, and the previous accumulated rainfall is B<75mm, it is less likely to cause debris flow.(3) Based on the integrated rainfall threshold R*=12.51+B,the red alert for heavy rainfall in mountainous areas of Beijing is R*≥600mm, orange alert for heavy rainfall is 600>R*≥480mm, yellow alert for heavy rainfall is 480>R*≥300mm, and blue alert for heavy rainfall is R*<300mm in the mountainous areas of Beijing.The study can provide a basis for debris flow prevention and mitigation.
作者
陈文鸿
余斌
柳清文
孙帅
师春香
CHEN Wenhong;YU Bin;LIU Qingwen;SUN Shuai;SHI Chunxiang(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059 China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2021年第4期27-33,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
四川省重点研发项目(18ZDYF3431)。
关键词
泥石流
激发雨量
临界值
累积降雨量
北京山区
debris flow
triggering rainfall
threshold
cumulative rainfall
Beijing mountainous area
作者简介
陈文鸿,男,博士研究生,主要从事地质灾害防治与预警方面的研究。E-mail:625006176@qq.com;通讯作者:余斌,男,教授,博士,主要从事泥石流灾害与防治方面的研究。E-mail:yubin08@cdut.cn。
