摘要
中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立以及"一带一路"倡议的提出,为云南省与东盟各国的双边贸易合作提供了新的契机。选取2006年至2017年云南省及其主要贸易国的面板数据,利用随机前沿引力模型估算云南省与东盟各国间双边贸易的效率和潜力,研究结果表明:2006年至2017年云南省与东盟各国贸易效率值在0~0.8范围,总体呈下降趋势。云南省与缅甸的双边贸易效率值大于0.5,与印度尼西亚、老挝、泰国、越南和马来西亚双边贸易效率值在0.25~0.5内;与菲律宾和新加坡的双边贸易效率仅在0.1~0.25内。云南省与东盟国家双边贸易潜力呈波动性增长态势,但与越南和缅甸的双边贸易潜力较高。
The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative have provided new chances to the bilateral trade cooperation between Yunnan Province and ASEAN countries. This study selected the trade panel data of Yunnan Province and its main trading partner countries and estimated the bilateral trade efficiency and potential between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN countries using Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Its results showed that, from 2006 to 2007, the efficiency values of the trade between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN countries dropped in the range of 0~0.8, indicating a holistically descending tendency. The bilateral trade efficiency value of Yunnan Province with Myanmar was above 0.5 while those with Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia fluctuated between 0.25 and 0.5 and those with the Philippines and Singapore only between 0.1 and 0.25. The potential of bilateral trade of Yunnan Province with the ASEAN countries showed an undulated increasing trend while that with Vietnam and Myanmar were higher.
作者
何煜超
汤静
孙鹏
He Yu-chao;Tang Jing;Sun Peng(School of Tourism and Geography Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming,Yunnan 650500,China;School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming,Yunnan 650500,China)
出处
《南宁职业技术学院学报》
2020年第5期22-27,共6页
Journal of Nanning College for Vocational Technology
作者简介
何煜超(1995-),男,江西九江人,云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院2018级人文地理学专业研究生,主要从事区域经济开发与管理研究;汤静(1996-),女,江西丰城人,云南大学经济学院2019级金融专硕硕士研究生,主要从事金融研究;孙鹏(1996-),男,江西赣州人,云南大学经济学院2019级金融专硕硕士研究生,主要从事金融研究。
