摘要
依据中国煤矿安全生产网,对2010年—2019年煤矿生产安全事故资料进行统计,分析全国每年煤矿生产安全事故起数和死亡人数、事故类型、事故级别、百万吨死亡率以及各省煤矿生产安全事故起数和死亡人数等方面现状。分析表明:(1)2010年—2019年,我国煤矿安全生产形势得到了大幅度的好转;(2)瓦斯、顶板、水灾事故仍为今后防治的重点;(3)重大、特大事故在近3年间基本消除,一般、较大事故还需加大治理力度;(4)2010年—2019年,山西省所发生的煤矿生产安全事故起数及死亡人数居全国第一。并建立GM(1,1)模型,运用Matlab软件对我国煤矿百万吨死亡率进行预测,得到2020年及2021年的百万吨死亡率预测值,具有一定的可靠性。
According to the China Coal Mine Safety Production Network,statistics of coal mine production safety accidents from 2010 to 2019 are carried out to analyze the number of coal mine production safety accidents and deaths,accident types,accident levels,death rates per million tons,and coal mine production safety in various provinces as well as the number of deaths.The analysis shows that from 2010 to 2019,the safety production situation of coal mines in China has been greatly improved,gas,roof and flood accidents are still the focus of future prevention and control,major and extraordinarily serious accidents have occurred in the past three years,general and large accidents need to be strengthened,and from 2010 to 2019,the number of coal mine production safety accidents and deaths in Shanxi Province ranked the first in China.The GM(1,1)model is established,and the Matlab software is used to predict the death rate of one million tons of coal mines in China,and the predicted value of the death rate of one million tons in 2020 and 2021 is obtained,which has certain reliability.
作者
孟远
谢东海
苏波
谷翱翔
Meng Yuan;Xie Donghai;Su Bo;Gu Aoxiang(School of Resources,Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe Mining Technology of Coal Mines,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)
出处
《矿业工程研究》
2020年第4期27-33,共7页
Mineral Engineering Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51604111,51774133)
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2017JJ2082)
湖南省教育厅科研资助项目(16C0654)。
关键词
煤矿事故
统计计算
事故规律
百万吨死亡率预测
coal mine accident
statistical calculation
accident law
forecast of the death rate of one million tons
作者简介
通信作者:谢东海,E-mail:dhxie@hnust.edu.cn。
