摘要
为揭示“地铁运营中断”与“地铁乘客出行行为”的互动耦合机理,运用改进SP-off-RP调查法的2826份数据,基于非集计理论和统计分析方法,探索地铁运营中断事件对深圳地铁3号线沿线居住的地铁乘客出行选择的影响。针对事件持续时长大小和不同影响范围划分了事件情形并给出6个决策肢,以出发时间和交通方式联合选择作为子集的组合,构造基于广义极值理论(GEV)的Cross-Nested logit(CNL)模型。研究结果表明:中断事件迫使地铁乘客做出相应的出行调整,事件情形的演变动态影响出行选择行为,当事件持续时长超过3 h且事件影响范围大时,常规公交和网约车将成为主要替代方式;且出行目的、交通可达性和行程时间可靠度等8个因素对联合选择模型具有显著影响,最后给出应对策略以期缓解事件的负面效应。
In order to reveal the interactive coupling mechanism of“subway operation interruption”and“subway passenger travel behavior”,826 data from the improved SP-off-RP survey method were obtained.Based on the theory of non-collecting and statistical analysis,the impact of the disruption of subway operations on the travel choices of subway passengers living along Shenzhen Metro Line 3 was explored.The event situation was divided into the duration of the event and the different impact range,and 6 decision-making limbs were given.The Cross-Nested logit(CNL)model based on the generalized extreme value theory(GEV)was constructed by combining the choice as a subset of departure time and transportation mode.The results are as follows.The interruption event forces subway passengers to make corresponding travel adjustments.The evolution of the event situation dynamics affects the behavior of travel choice.When the event lasts more than 3h and the impact of the event is large,the regular bus and network contract bus will become the main alternative.The travel purpose,eight factors,such as traffic accessibility and travel time reliability have a significant impact on the joint selection model.Finally,according to the analysis results,three coping strategies are given in order to mitigate the negative effects of the events.
作者
柳伍生
潘自翔
魏隽君
肖雨榭
LIU Wusheng;PAN Zixiang;WEI Junjun;XIAO Yuxie(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410004,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期2953-2961,共9页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2019JJ40306)
长沙理工大学道路灾变防治及交通安全教育部工程研究中心开放基金资助项目(kfj180401)。
作者简介
通信作者:柳伍生(1976-),男,湖北监利人,副教授,博士,从事交通行为不确定分析、综合交通枢纽规划与设计等研究,E-mail:lwusheng@163.com。
