摘要
为描述和分析系统故障演化过程,提出了空间故障网络理论。该理论基于先期提出的空间故障树理论,继承了其多因素影响分析、故障大数据处理及因果关系分析的能力。实际系统故障演化过程较为复杂,使用空间故障树树形结构难以描述,因此提出空间故障网络。故障演化过程的实质是由事件和连接组成的按照一定因果关系相连的网络结构。又由于事件由对象及其状态表示,空间故障网络研究的是故障演化过程中对象、状态和连接之间的关系。论述了以往研究的不足,给出了各概念的物理含义、转化步骤、单向环分类、最终事件发生概率计算方法等。论述了空间故障网络研究存在的不足及今后需要研究的关键问题。
The paper intends to propose the theory of space fault network to describe and analyze the process of the system fault evolution.The said theory has been founded on the space fault tree proposed originally by inheriting the capability to analyze the multiple factors through data processing and causality examination.As is well known,the system fault evolution process is actually much more complicated and complex,not easy to describe in a tree structure form.And,this may account for the great value of the space fault network proposal.So far as we know,the fault evolution process is by nature a network structure consisting of events and connections with a certain causality relationship.Since the events are represented by the objects and their statusin-situ,the study and examination of the space fault network should take it as its object the relationship among the objects,states and connections in the fault evolution process.Hence,the events should be a combination of the objects and their status-insitu,with the event probability being the fundamental nature of the objects involved.And,in the system,the width represents the complexity of the cause of the fault evolution process,whereas the route represents a single fault evolutional process.At the same time,the transmission probability indicates the objective existence of the cause events and the probability of the result events,while the span measures the accessibility between the 2 events.Given the steps of transforming space fault network into space fault tree,it would be possible to deduce the calculation process of the probability of the target events again.What is more,in accordance with the number of edge events,the entire fault evolution process can be divided into different order fault evolutionary processes.On the contrary,the unidirectional rings can also be divided into 4 categories:the irrelevant structure,the relation-loose structure,the relational structure,and the mixed relational structure.Due to the different characteristics of each category,the actual fault processes can be different,which lead to the various measures to prevent the fault evolution.The calculation of the probability distribution of the target event from the 2 aspects,one is the probability of the edge event,and the other is the transmission probability of the evolutional process.Thus,finally,the probability distribution of the resulted target events can be calculated with an example,which demonstrates that the given research method can suggest novel ideas and methods for further studies of the system fault evolution process.
作者
崔铁军
CUI Tie-jun(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Key Laboratory of Mine Thermodynamic Disasters and Control of Ministry of Education,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,Liaoning,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期1255-1262,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51704141)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1503102)。
关键词
安全系统学
空间故障网络
空间故障树
系统故障演化
safety systematology
space fault network
space fault tree
system fault evolution
作者简介
崔铁军,副教授,博士,从事系统可靠性及力学系统稳定性研究,ctj.159@163.com。
