摘要
【目的】充分利用气候资源和气象条件,规避气象灾害风险,依托高时空分辨率、高预报准确率的气象数值预报产品指导农业春播生产。【方法】选取内蒙古6个农业气象观测站玉米、春小麦、马铃薯、大豆的播种日期资料,赤峰市松山区玉米和翁牛特旗马铃薯的大田播种进度资料,春播期间农田土壤水分观测资料及对应气象观测站的降水量、土壤温度、春季土壤解冻深度逐日气象观测资料,采用模糊隶属度函数分别建立土壤水分、土壤温度、土壤解冻深度和天气条件4个播种气象适宜度子模型。【结果】确定了玉米、春小麦、马铃薯和大豆在4个子模型中的气象指标,用层次分析法构建了大田作物播种气象适宜度综合评价模型,并确立了播种气象适宜等级划分标准。【结论】选择的评价指标、构建的评价模型能够客观地反映气象条件对春播的影响。
【Objective】To make full use of climatic resources and meteorological conditions,avoid the risk of meteorological disasters,the production of agricultural spring sowing is guided by relying on meteorological numerical forecast products with high temporal and spatial resolution and forecast accuracy.【Methods】We selected six of Inner Mongolia agricultural meteorological station for maize,spring wheat,potato,soybeans sowing date,and the field sowing progress data of maize in Songshan District and potato in Ongniud Banner to be used in this research.In addition,the observation data of farmland soil moisture during spring sowing,and daily meteorological observation data of precipitation,soil temperature and spring soil thawing depth of corresponding stations were used as well.Four sub-model of meteorological suitability for sowing,including soil moisture,soil temperature,thawing depth of soil and weather conditions were determined for the four meteorological indicators in sub-models of maize,spring wheat,potato,and soybean by using fuzzy membership function.【Results】The meteorological indexes of maize,spring wheat,potato and soybean in the four sub-models were determined,the comprehensive evaluation model of field crop seeding meteorological suitability was established by analytic hierarchy process,and the classification standard of seeding meteorological suitability was established.【Conclusion】The evaluation indexes selected and the evaluation model constructed could objectively reflect the influence of meteorological conditions on spring sowing.
作者
王志春
WANG Zhichun(Chifeng Meteorological Bureau,Chifeng 024000,China)
出处
《北方农业学报》
2020年第4期121-125,共5页
Journal of Northern Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41665007)。
关键词
大田作物
播种
气象适宜度
气象适宜等级
评价模型
Field crops
Sowing
Meteorological suitability
Suitable meteorological grades
Evaluation model
作者简介
王志春(1974-),男,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象、气候、生态的研究工作。
