摘要
水资源安全研究是水资源合理配置与生态环境建设中必须面对的基础科学问题。选取疏勒河流域作为研究对象,利用流域2005-2017年自然、经济、社会和水资源状况等相关数据,构建了5个方面20个评价因子所组成的综合评价指标体系,利用多层次多目标模糊综合评判模型,对流域水资源安全进行了综合评价。结果表明:13 a中疏勒河流域水资源安全程度最高的是2015年,最低的是2011年。其中,供水安全在水资源安全中所占比重最大,权重为0.3257;生态环境安全在水资源安全中所占比例最小,权重为0.0984。基于长序列时间尺度的AHP和多层次多目标模糊综合评判模型能够较好地模拟疏勒河流域水资源安全状况,为水资源安全评价提供了一个新视角和新方法。为进一步提高流域水资源安全程度,应继续调整流域经济结构,提高水资源综合利用效率,制定合理水资源管理制度,科学规划流域用水结构。
The study of water resources security is a significant scientific issue in the rational allocation of the water resources and the construction of ecological environment.The Shule River Basin is selected as the research object.Based on the data of natural,economic,social and water resources from 2005 to 2017,a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of 20 evaluation factors in 5 aspects is constructed.The multi-level and multi-objective fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to comprehensively evaluate the water resources security of the basin.The results show that the safest year of the water resources security in Shule River Basin is 2015,and the most insecure year is 2011.Among them,water supply security accounts for the largest proportion in water resources security,with a weight of 0.3257,and ecological environment security contributes to the smallest proportion in water resource security,with a weight of 0.0984.As is listed above,based on long series time scale,the AHP and multi-level and multi-objective fuzzy comprehensive model supply a reasonable result in water resources security situation of Shule River Basin,and provide a new perspective and method for water resource security evaluation.Therefore,to improve the safety of water resources,we should continue to adjust the economic structure of the basin,improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources,formulate a reasonable water resources management system,and scientifically plan the water use structure of the basin.
作者
武兰珍
孙栋元
赵霞
鄢继选
牛最荣
齐广平
WU Lan-zhen;SUN Dong-yuan;ZHAO Xia;YAN Ji-xuan;NIU Zui-rong;QI Guang-ping(Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering College of Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070 China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2020年第9期84-89,94,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金“疏勒河流域水资源安全评估与预警调控研究”(sklhse-2018-A-05)
甘肃省重点研发计划项目“河长制网格化管理信息系统研制与示范应用”(18YF1FA081)
甘肃省水利科研与计划项目“河长制对疏勒河流域水流产权和水生态安全影响研究”(甘水科外发[2017]76号)
甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院青年基金(SLSDXY-QN2018-03)。
关键词
疏勒河流域
水资源安全评价
层次分析
多目标多层次模糊综合评价
Shule River basin
water resources safety evaluation
AHP
multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive model
作者简介
武兰珍(1986-),女,硕士,讲师,主要从事水文水资源教学与研究工作,E-mail:s121515@163.com;通讯作者:孙栋元(1978-),男,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源与干旱区水土资源方面的教学和科研工作,E-mail:sundy@gsau.edu.cn。
