新冠疫情常态化应对:宏观对冲与协同治理被引量：1

The Routine Response to COVID-19 Epidemic:Macro-hedging and Collaborative Governance

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摘要本文针对新冠疫情对居民时间分配和支出决策的影响,从家庭生产的视角,将三分法的时间分配引入DSGE模型,根据中国经济运行的特征事实校准参数,分析常态化防控的应对举措。情景模拟的结果表明:相较于减税降负,提升家庭生产效率、提高赤字率与减税降负组合实施可稳定投资和劳动供给,降低消费和产出的波动。为更好应对外部环境变化,统筹疫情防控和恢复生产,推进危机管理向危机治理转型势在必行,既要发挥财政政策稳定纾困的支柱作用,强化宏观对冲力度,更要调动企业、居民、社区等社会各界的积极性,完善居家办公、远程办公、弹性工作、志愿服务等微观机制设计,健全多层次协同治理体系。 In view of the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on residents'time allocation and expenditure decisions,the tricho-tomy time allocation of household is incorporated into the DSGE model from the perspective of home production in order to analyze the normal prevention and control measures by calibrating the parameters according to the characteristic facts of China's economy.Compared with the tax reduction policy,increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio,improving household production efficiency and implementing the combination of tax reduction policy,which can not only stabilize investment and labor supply,but also reduce the fluctuation of consumption and output.In order to cope with changes in the external environment,coordinate epidemic prevention and resume production,it is imperative to promote the transformation from crisis management to crisis governance.We should not only give full play to the pillar role of fiscal policies in stabilizing and providing assistance,and strengthen the hedge on macro-policies,but also mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises,residents,communities and other sectors of society,improve the design of micro-mechanisms on home office,remote office,flexible work and volunteer service,enhance the system of multi-level collaborative governance.

作者谢攀张军谋刘远玺 Xie Pan;Zhang Junmou;Liu Yuanxi(International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China;Tourism School,Lanzhou University of Arts and Science,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区陕西师范大学国际商学院兰州文理学院旅游学院

出处《工业技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第10期38-46,共9页 Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目“供需均衡视角下的中国潜在经济增长率测算及增长要素分析”(项目编号:16CJL011)。

关键词新冠疫情协同治理家庭生产资本所得税赤字率 DSGE模型 COVID-19 epidemic collaborative governance home production capital income tax deficit ratio DSGE model

分类号 F015 [经济管理—政治经济学] F124 [经济管理—世界经济]

作者简介谢攀,陕西师范大学国际商学院副教授,博士后,硕士生导师,研究方向:宏观经济理论与政策分析;张军谋,兰州文理学院旅游学院教授,研究方向:民族经济与社会治理;刘远玺,陕西师范大学国际商学院硕士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济理论与政策分析。