摘要
卫星降水对展现降雨空间分布特征、提供防洪决策依据起着重要作用。以綦江流域五岔水文站以上控制面积为例,采用网格大小为0.25°×0.25°的CMORPH卫星反演降水数据,利用TS评分、空报率、漏报率三种指标评估日尺度卫星晴雨预报精度,利用平均绝对误差、显著性检验和相关性分析评估日尺度和月尺度卫星降水数值精度;将该降水数据和站网数据分别作为新安江模型的日模型输入,以2009~2012年为率定期,2013~2014年为验证期。设置最优参数不变和最优参数对比两组试验,利用纳什效率系数、径流深相对误差、均方根误差评估水文过程模拟精度。结果表明,对于中小流域,基于CMORPH卫星降水的新安江模型模拟结果对大洪水洪峰模拟偏低,小洪水洪峰模拟偏高,退水段模拟结果较好,总体模拟精度较高。参数率定时应更侧重于SM、CS两个敏感参数,且KC的初值可定得适量大一些,以期得到令人满意的结果。
Satellite precipitation plays an important role in prolonging prediction period of hydrological model and providing the basis for flood control decision.Taking the QiJiang watershed above Wucha hydrological station as an example,the CMORPH satellite data of the grid size of 0.25°×0.25°is taken as the research object.Three indexes,TS score,false alarm rate and missing alarm rate,are used to evaluate the accuracy of sunny and rainy forecast of the daily scale satellite.The mean absolute error,significance test and correlation analysis are used to evaluate the numerical accuracy of precipitation of the daily and monthly scale satellite.The precipitation data and station network data are respectively used as the daily model inputs of the Xin’anjiang model,with the rates of 2009-2012 as the calibration periods and 2013-2014 as the validation period.The simulation accuracy of hydrological process is evaluated by using Nash efficiency coefficient,deviation and root mean square error.The results show that the simulation results of the Xin’anjiang model based on CMORPH satellite precipitation are relatively low for the simulation of high flood peak,high for the simulation of low flood peak,good for the simulation of backwater section,and high for the overall simulation results.The parameters calibration should focus on two sensitive parameters SMand CS,furthermore the intital value of KCcan be give a large range,so as to get the satisfactory results.
作者
黄依之
张行南
方园皓
HUANG Yi-zhi;ZHANG Xing-nan;FANG Yuan-hao(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2020年第9期1-4,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51420105014)
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0409000)。
作者简介
黄依之(1996-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文物理规律模拟,E-mail:1932103540@qq.com;通讯作者:张行南(1960-),男,教授、博导,研究方向为水文物理规律模拟,E-mail:zjcn@hhu.edu.cn。
