摘要
针对波浪能长期规划的难题,本文建立了一套波浪能预估模型,并以“海上丝路”作为实例,以CMIP5风场驱动WW3海浪模式,对“海上丝路”2020—2059年的波浪能展开预估,覆盖能流密度、可利用率、富集程度、稳定性、资源月际差异等一系列关键指标。结果表明“海上丝路”未来40 a的波浪能整体趋于乐观:1)未来40 a平均状态下,“海上丝路”的能流密度为12~20 kW/m;南海和孟加拉湾未来的WPD高于历史状态,阿拉伯海则相反。2)该海域未来40 a平均的资源可用率、富集程度均比历史状态乐观。3)“海上丝路”未来40 a平均的资源稳定性好于历史状态(阿拉伯海未来2月和8月除外),其中孟加拉湾的稳定性好于南海和阿拉伯海。4)阿拉伯海未来40 a平均的月际差异最大,南海次之,孟加拉湾最小。阿拉伯海和南海未来的月际差异小于历史状态,孟加拉湾的月际差异与历史状态接近。
Pointing out the difficulty of long-term development planning,this study proposes a projection model of wave energy,selecting the Maritime Silk Road as a case study.Using wind data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)to drive the WW3 wave model,the wave energy for 2020—2059 is systematically projected,including wave power density,availability,energy richness and stability,and monthly variation.Results show that wave energy in the Maritime Silk Road for the next 40 years is seeing an optimistic trend.First,the wave power density(WPD),on average,is 12~20 kW/m in the Maritime Silk Road.The future multiyear value of WPD in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal is greater than the historical values,whereas the future WPD in the Arabian Sea is smaller than that of historical values.Second,the resource availability and energy richness in this sea area for the next 40 years are more optimistic than historical values.Third,the resource stability of the Maritime Silk Road in the next 40 years has a better trend than the historical status data(except for the Arabian Sea in February and August),with the Bay of Bengal seeing more stability than that of the South China Sea and Arabian Sea.Finally,in the next 40 years,the monthly variability index(Mv)will be the largest in the Arabian Sea,followed by the South China Sea,and smallest in the Bay of Bengal.The future Mv in the South China Sea and the Arabian Sea is smaller than historical values,whereas the future Mv in the Bay of Bengal is similar to historical values.
作者
郑崇伟
裴顺强
李伟
ZHENG Chongwei;PEI Shunqiang;LI Wei(Department of Navigation, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, China;National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Headquarters Office of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《哈尔滨工程大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期958-965,共8页
Journal of Harbin Engineering University
基金
国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41520104008)
河口海岸学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLEC-KF201707)。
作者简介
通讯作者:郑崇伟,男,讲师,博士,E-mail:chinaoceanzcw@sina.cn;裴顺强,男,高级工程师。
