摘要
由于我国低学历、缺技能的农村人口在总人口中占大多数,从而使"三农"问题成为国家经济社会发展中的一个显著问题。多年来农村信用社为"三农"的发展和壮大提供了重要的资金支持。然而,从2014年起,农村信用社的存贷款量逐年下降,直接影响到农信社对县域经济的支持和对"三农"的金融服务。本文首先使用时间序列分析法预测了未来12个季度农信社存、贷款量的变化趋势,最后给出了农信社改善业务的建议和对策。
Because the rural population with low education background and lack of skills accounts for the majority of the total population,the"three rural"problem has become a significant problem in the national economic and social development.Over the years,Rural Credit Cooperatives have provided important financial support for the development and expansion of"agriculture,rural areas and farmers".However,since 2014,the amount of deposits and loans of Rural Credit Cooperatives has been decreasing year by year,which has a direct impact on the support of rural credit cooperatives to the county economy and the financial services to"agriculture,rural areas and farmers".In this paper,the method of time series analysis method is used to predict the change trend of deposit and loan volume of Rural Credit Cooperatives in the next 12 quarters.Finally,suggestions and countermeasures are given to improve the business of Rural Credit Cooperatives.
作者
谢睿
梁后军
吴亭
XIE Rui;LIANG Hou-jun;WU Ting(School of Accounting,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui 233030)
出处
《牡丹江大学学报》
2020年第8期26-30,88,共6页
Journal of Mudanjiang University
基金
安徽省教育厅人文科学研究项目“新时代安徽农村合作金融发展研究”(编号:SK2018A0462)
校级科研项目“‘互联网+’背景下农村合作金融机构会计风险防范研究”(ACKY1838)。
关键词
农村信用社
存贷款合计
时间序列
预测
Rural Credit Cooperatives
total deposits and loans
time series
forecast
作者简介
谢睿(1984-)女,安徽蚌埠人,安徽财经大学会计学院讲师,硕士,研究方向:农村合作金融;梁后军(1978-),男,安徽天长人,博士,讲师,研究方向:人工智能;吴亭(1981-),女,安徽怀宁人,硕士,讲师,研究方向:公司治理与审计。
