摘要
本文详细讨论了刘易斯拐点问题在我国的争论.论文利用我国农业和工业统计数据,以刘易斯-拉费模型为理论基础,对我国刘易斯第一、第二拐点进行了测算,实证研究的结果表明:我国已于2005年前后越过刘易斯第一转折点,劳动力供给状态由无限转变为有限阶段;在2035年达到我国农业和工业部门边际劳动生产率相等的时间点,即刘易斯-拉费模型中的第二转折点,届时劳动力将成为稀缺的生产要素,农业部门将"商品化",二元经济结构转变完成.在此基础上,论文对我国越过刘易斯第一拐点后的经济政策提出了一些建议.
The paper discusses some arguments concerning the problems of Lewis Turning point in China in detail.Based on the theory of Lewis-Ranis-Fei Model,the paper uses agriculture and industry statistics to measure the first and second Lewis turning point in China.The empiric results show that China got across the first Lewis turning point in 2005,since then,the situation of labor supple has changed from unlimited into limited period.It is expected that the marginal labor productivity of agriculture sector will catch up with that of industry sector in 2035,which is the second Lewis turning point.After China get through the second turning point,labor force will become the scarce productive factor,agriculture sector will be commercialized,China's dual economy structure shall finish its transfomation.On the basis of the above analysis,the article puts forward some recommendations of economic policies.
作者
易定红
YI Ding-hong(Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872)
出处
《中国劳动》
2020年第2期5-19,共15页
China Labor
关键词
刘易斯拐点
经济政策
Lewis turning point
economic policy
作者简介
易定红,中国人民大学劳动人事学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向为收入分配。
