摘要
通过对第93~116届国会期间涉台议案和决议案的实证分析可以发现,中美关系和两岸关系的同步良性发展是限制国会干涉台湾问题的关键外因,白宫在推行对华政策时能否摆脱国会的牵制则是重要内因。后者不但取决于总统所属的政党能在多大程度上掌控参众两院,也有赖于总统个人因素。此外,台湾政治游说对涉台立法也有较高的相关性。2016年以来中美关系和两岸关系同步下滑,增加了国会加强涉台立法的诱因。遭到众议院弹劾案打击的特朗普可能屈服于国会的压力,国会势将推出更多的"友台"议案和决议案。美台勾连的强化对两岸关系和平发展的前景构成了严峻的挑战。展望未来,唯有中美关系和两岸关系都朝良性方向发展,台湾问题才有和平解决的可能。
On the basis of the empirical study of 596 Taiwan-related bills and resolutions from the 93rd to the 116th U.S.Congresses(1973-2020),this paper finds that the key external factor constraining U.S.congressional involvement in the Taiwan Question is the development of U.S.-China relations and cross-Taiwan Strait ties.The internal factor,in the same regard,is to what extent the White House can free itself from the interference of Congress,which is contingent upon not only partisan politics between the executive and legislative branches but also the President’s leadership authority and personality.In addition,Taiwan lobby activities on Capitol Hill are relevant to the increase in bills and resolutions.The simultaneous deterioration of U.S.-China relations and cross-Strait ties since 2016 have increased congressional incentives to expand Taiwan-related legislation.Impeached by the House of Representatives,President Donald Trump is more likely to give in to congressional pressure,which is expected to put forward more pro-Taiwan bills and resolutions.The strengthened relations between Washington and Taiwan have posed a severe challenge to peace across the Taiwan Strait.
作者
林冈
周文星
Lin Gang;Zhou Wenxing
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期35-51,5,6,共19页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
作者简介
林冈:上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院特聘教授兼学术委员会主任、上海市台湾研究会副会长;周文星:上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院在读博士研究生、尚道社会研究所客座研究员。
