摘要
改革开放以来,中国棉花生产重心呈现出由南向北,再由北向西北地区变迁的特点。新疆自1997年以来一直是中国最大的植棉省,2017年其棉花播种面积占全国总量的69.41%。本文从自然因素和政策干预两个视角分析其对棉花生产布局的影响。基于1978—2017年省级面板数据和多元线性回归模型分析发现:在全国层面,生长季平均日照时长和生长季平均降水量对棉花生产集中度有显著影响。生长季平均日照时长每增加10小时,棉花生产规模指数将大约上升0.354%;生长季平均降水量每增加1毫米,棉花生产规模指数将大约下降0.010%。增加新疆地区虚拟变量与气候变量的交叉项后,结果显示生长季平均温度对棉花生产规模指数有正向影响,相比其他地区,新疆的生长季平均温度每增加1摄氏度,棉花生产规模指数将大约上升9.629%,这可能与温度升高导致新疆积雪融化、地下水增加、宜棉范围扩大以及棉花生长期延长有关;生长季平均日照时长每增加10小时,棉花指数将大约上升0.359%。此结果基本验证了棉花喜光照、惧严寒的生长习性和新疆独特的自然优势。此外,不同时期制定的棉花政策也促进了棉花生产向新疆集中。结论表明自然和政策因素都对中国棉花布局向新疆集中具有重大影响。中国政府对新疆棉花发展的支持政策遵循了自然规律,发挥了新疆的自然条件优势。
Cotton is a strategic material related to the national economy and people's livelihood.Since the 1970s,the cotton production in China has gradually moved first from south to north,then from north to northwest.Xinjiang has the largest cotton planting area in China since 1997.In 2017,the cotton planting area in Xinjiang accounted for 69.41%of the whole country.This paper analyzes the impact of natural factors and policy interventions on the dynamics of cotton production.Based on the analysis of provincial panel data from 1978 to 2017,this paper finds that:at the national level,the average sunshine duration and the average temperature in the growing season have significant effects on the cotton production concentration.For every 1 hour increase in the average sunshine duration during the growing season,the cotton production will increase by 0.002%;for every 1℃increase in the growing season temperature,the cotton production will decrease by 0.049%.The effect of average precipitation in the growing season on cotton production is not statistically significant.By setting up the regional dummy variables of Xinjiang,it was found that the average temperature and sunshine in the growing season had significantly positive impacts on the cotton production in Xinjiang.For every 1℃increase in the average temperature in the growing season,the cotton production in Xinjiang will increase by 1.66%.This may be related to the increase of groundwater,the expansion of cotton planting area and the extension of cotton growing period caused by the rise of temperature in Xinjiang;for every 1-hour increase in the average sunshine duration in the growing season,the cotton production concentration in Xinjiang will increase by 0.02%.The results validate the uniquely biophysical conditions for cotton production in Xinjiang and the natural habit of the cotton,which prefers sunshine and hates rain,and fears cold and high temperature.In addition,the temporary cotton stockpiling policy,the target price subsidy policy and subsidies for planting superior seed varieties,implemented in various years in China,have played significant roles in promoting the move of cotton production to Xinjiang.Our analysis shows that both natural and policy factors have significant impacts on cotton production in Xinjiang.The policy of our government to support the development of cotton in Xinjiang follows the natural law and takes advantage of relatively preferable biophysical conditions in Xinjiang.
作者
谭晓艳
张晓恒
游良志
TAN Xiaoyan;ZHANG Xiaoheng;YOU Liangzhi
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期79-93,共15页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
中国工程院院士咨询项目“至2050年中国种植业发展战略研究”,中央高校基本科研业务专项基金资助(编号:2662018PY101
编号:2662018QD008)。
关键词
棉花
生产布局
自然因素
政策干预
气候变化
Cotton
Production layout
Natural factors
Policy intervention
Climate change
作者简介
通讯作者:张晓恒。
