网络舆情驱动下突发事件情景推演研究被引量：11

Study on Scenario Deduction of Emergencies Driven by Internet Public Opinion

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摘要【目的/意义】非常规突发事件的爆发会带动舆论信息的传播,本文旨在揭示网络舆情驱动下突发事件的演化机理,为有关部门及时采取应急救援活动、有效控制舆情蔓延提供依据。【方法/过程】运用知识元表示法描述突发事件的情景状态、应急活动、孕灾环境和承灾体四种要素,构建基于动态贝叶斯网络的情景推演模型,并以沈阳非洲猪瘟事件为例,建立网络舆情驱动下突发事件情景网络结构,通过动态贝叶斯网络直观呈现情景演化过程。【结果/结论】研究结果表明,情景推演模型在时间推理与事件发展的顺序上与突发事件演化过程基本一致,通过应急活动扰动分析,证实知识元表示和动态贝叶斯网络方法的有效性,为舆情引导提供一定的参考。【Purpose/significance】The outbreak of unconventional emergencies will promote the dissemination of public opinion information,this paper aims to reveal the evolution mechanism of emergencies driven by Internet public opinion,and provide basis for relevant departments to take emergency rescue activities in time and effectively control the spread of public opinion.【Method/process】The knowledge element representation is used to describe the four elements of emergen cies,including scenario state,emergency activities,disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-bearing body,a scenario deduction model based on dynamic Bayesian network is constructed.Taking the African Swine Fever incident in Shenyang as an example,the network structure of emergency scenario driven by public opinion is established,and the evolution pro cess of scenario is visualized by dynamic Bayesian network.【Result/conclusion】The research results show that the situation deduction model is basically consistent with the evolution process of emergency events in the order of time reasoning and event development.Through the disturbance analysis of emergency activities,the effectiveness of knowledge element repre sentation and dynamic Bayesian network method is confirmed,which provides a reference for public opinion guidance.

作者张志霞郝纹慧张二双 ZHANG Zhi-xia;HAO Wen-hui;ZHANG Er-shuang(School of Management,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)

机构地区西安建筑科技大学管理学院

出处《情报科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第5期141-147,共7页 Information Science

基金陕西省自然科学基金“多源信息环境下突发事件情景推演及应急决策研究”(2019JM-521) 陕西省社会科学基金“重大突发事故多维动态应急响应协同机制研究”(2019S035)。

关键词网络舆情突发事件知识元动态贝叶斯网络情景推演 network public opinion emergencies knowledge elements dynamic Bayesian network scenario deduction

分类号 G206.3 [文化科学—传播学]

作者简介张志霞(1973-),女,内蒙古包头人,副教授,博士,主要从事复杂系统优化与决策研究。